What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal XGBoost win probability and the no-vig implied probability from Pinnacle's closing odds. A positive VOPO means the model estimates the player's true probability to be higher than what the market prices in.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when 15% < VOPO ≤ 20%, the internal XGBoost win probability is above 60%, and the match is not played on Grass — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Men's
Rankings.

Q: How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Q: Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 9, 2026 AT 03:34 AM UTC

Rank	Player	Recent Form	Glicko Pts	RD	Hard	Clay	Grass
#1▲1	Jannik Sinner-	W W W W W	2.524(#1)	81	2.513(#1)	2.600(#1)	2.324(#1)
#2▼1	Carlos Alcaraz-53Hot	W W W W W	2.438(#2)	95	2.447(#2)	2.531(#2)	2.136(#2)
#3▲4	Alexander Zverev-85Hot	L W W W W	2.283(#3)	70	2.237(#5)	2.396(#3)	2.029(#4)
#4▲8	Arthur Fils-Hot	W W W W L	2.218(#4)	71	2.217(#6)	2.355(#4)	1.559(#158)
#5▼2	Novak Djokovic-Cold	W W L L L	2.204(#5)	90	2.129(#16)	2.089(#33)	2.099(#3)
#6▲4	Ben Shelton-71Hot	L W W W W	2.179(#6)	66	2.299(#3)	2.065(#44)	1.935(#6)
#7▲52	Frances Tiafoe-100Hot	W W W W W	2.170(#7)	64	2.247(#4)	2.074(#39)	1.887(#8)
#8▼4	Taylor Fritz-45Hot	W L W W L	2.167(#8)	66	2.201(#7)	1.732(#514)	2.016(#5)
#9▲75	Rafael Jodar-	L W W L L	2.159(#9)	65	2.173(#12)	2.305(#5)	1.581(#130)
#10▲1	Tommy Paul-66Hot	L W W W L	2.154(#10)	66	2.128(#17)	2.220(#7)	1.727(#35)
#11▲5	Felix Auger Aliassime-30Hot	W W L W L	2.131(#11)	70	2.125(#19)	2.097(#28)	1.796(#21)
#12▼3	Lorenzo Musetti-	W W L W L	2.113(#12)	74	2.102(#26)	2.193(#9)	1.679(#55)
#13▲9	Joao Fonseca-	L W W L W	2.112(#13)	72	2.198(#8)	2.124(#19)	1.574(#138)
#14▲20	Brandon Nakashima-Hot	W W L W L	2.110(#14)	63	2.195(#9)	1.927(#121)	1.773(#25)
#15▲2	Learner Tien-87Hot	L W W W L	2.109(#15)	68	2.144(#15)	2.123(#20)	1.548(#166)
#16▼11	Alex De Minaur-	W W L W L	2.107(#16)	67	2.122(#21)	2.128(#18)	1.861(#10)
#17▲23	Flavio Cobolli-53Hot	W L W W L	2.104(#17)	65	2.098(#28)	2.169(#14)	1.777(#24)
#18▼10	Jiri Lehecka-41Rising	W L W W L	2.102(#18)	68	2.094(#31)	2.149(#16)	1.823(#17)
#19▲113	Alexander Blockx-69Hot	L W W W W	2.101(#19)	68	2.112(#24)	2.183(#12)	1.519(#196)
#20▼5	Casper Ruud-	W L W L L	2.095(#20)	71	1.957(#105)	2.280(#6)	1.432(#3011)
#21▲10	Sebastian Korda-	W L W W L	2.093(#21)	67	2.101(#27)	1.914(#135)	1.506(#220)
#22▲20	Jakub Mensik-54Hot	W L W W L	2.088(#22)	67	2.128(#18)	2.161(#15)	1.584(#126)
#23▼5	Daniil Medvedev-51	L W W W L	2.083(#23)	70	2.079(#34)	2.100(#27)	1.742(#31)
#24▲66	Alex Michelsen-91Hot	W W W W L	2.076(#24)	64	2.183(#11)	1.884(#190)	1.629(#86)
#25▲2	Francisco Cerundolo-82	L W W W L	2.071(#25)	70	2.050(#46)	2.113(#23)	1.722(#37)
#26▼13	Alexander Bublik-44Hot	W L W W L	2.067(#26)	70	2.113(#23)	2.018(#68)	1.893(#7)
#27▼4	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina-	W W L W L	2.064(#27)	64	2.035(#53)	2.027(#59)	1.823(#18)
#28▲71	Daniel Merida Aguilar-39Hot	W L W W L	2.058(#28)	62	2.149(#13)	2.080(#36)	1.435(#3008)
#29▼10	Hubert Hurkacz-Hot	W W W W L	2.058(#29)	68	2.062(#41)	2.073(#40)	1.756(#28)
#30▲2	Andrey Rublev-30	L W L W L	2.054(#30)	69	1.978(#87)	2.220(#8)	1.539(#179)
#31▲32	Stefanos Tsitsipas-70Hot	L W W W L	2.051(#31)	66	2.098(#29)	2.094(#29)	1.504(#225)
#32▼26	Jack Draper-	W W L L L	2.044(#32)	93	2.015(#62)	2.088(#34)	1.815(#19)
#33▲72	Thiago Agustin Tirante-Hot	W W W L L	2.043(#33)	67	2.069(#37)	2.135(#17)	1.417(#3035)
#34▼13	Holger Rune-	W L W W L	2.036(#34)	64	2.054(#43)	2.059(#46)	1.672(#60)
#35▲2	Luciano Darderi-64Hot	L W W W L	2.031(#35)	63	1.984(#82)	2.179(#13)	1.472(#2951)
#36▲86	Botic Van De Zandschulp-96Hot	L W W W W	2.030(#36)	65	2.147(#14)	1.922(#128)	1.466(#2960)
#37▲18	Arthur Fery-	W W L W L	2.025(#37)	66	2.029(#54)	1.843(#262)	1.828(#15)
#38▲7	Cameron Norrie-	W L W L L	2.021(#38)	69	2.077(#35)	2.024(#60)	1.465(#2963)
#39▲8	Ignacio Buse-40Hot	W W W W L	2.021(#39)	63	2.070(#36)	2.046(#52)	1.505(#223)
#40▼2	Alejandro Tabilo-47	W L W W L	2.017(#40)	65	2.066(#39)	2.065(#45)	1.355(#3140)
#41▲38	Juan Manuel Cerundolo-	L W W L L	2.017(#41)	64	2.022(#57)	2.078(#38)	1.575(#136)
#42▼1	Michael Zheng-55Hot	W L W W L	2.017(#42)	66	2.069(#38)	2.043(#54)	1.628(#89)
#43▲139	Toby Samuel-Hot	W W W W L	2.016(#43)	66	2.125(#20)	1.954(#102)	1.497(#2915)
#44▲26	Valentin Vacherot-40	L L W W L	2.016(#44)	76	2.012(#64)	2.094(#30)	1.303(#3184)
#45▲205	Luca Van Assche-Rising	W W L W L	2.015(#45)	61	2.046(#50)	2.050(#51)	1.361(#3135)
#46▲127	Roman Safiullin-	W W L L L	2.015(#46)	70	1.847(#272)	2.192(#10)	1.723(#36)
#47▲232	Arthur Gea-100Hot	L W W W L	2.014(#47)	63	2.188(#10)	1.893(#178)	1.533(#182)
#48▲216	Quentin Halys-40Hot	W L L W L	2.012(#48)	64	1.994(#78)	2.114(#22)	1.516(#201)
#49▲140	Jaime Faria-Hot	W W L W L	2.011(#49)	62	2.097(#30)	2.023(#63)	1.733(#33)
#50▲74	Mariano Navone-46Hot	L L W W L	2.011(#50)	65	2.011(#66)	2.053(#50)	1.250(#3210)

Men's Rankings.

Men's
Rankings.