What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Lorenzo Musetti

MENInactive

Age24

BirthplaceCarrara, Italy

Height1.85m

Weight78kg

Best HandRight

BackhandOne-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:63%

Fatigue:0/100

Inactive:73 Days

Overall

Glicko-22.120

#13RD 71

Elo2.163

#12

Hard

Glicko-22.100

#21

Elo1.991

#14

Clay

Glicko-22.193

Elo2.027

Grass

Glicko-21.731

#34

Elo1.688

#20

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20267-36-4—

202526-1719-40-1

202416-1712-812-3

20239-1516-116-3

202221-1914-70-3

202110-1311-80-1

Recent Matches

Casper RuudInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-12Clay6-3 6-1

Francisco CerundoloInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-10Clay7-6(7) 6-4

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-08Clay6-4 6-4

Jiri LeheckaMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-28Clay6-3 6-3

Tallon GriekspoorMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-26Clay6-4 7-5

Hubert HurkaczMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-24Clay6-4 7-6(4)

Arthur FilsBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-17Clay6-3 6-4

Corentin MoutetBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-16Clay6-3 6-4

Martin LandaluceBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-14Clay7-5 6-2

Valentin VacherotMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-08Clay7-6(6) 7-5

Marton FucsovicsBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-06Hard7-5 6-1

Novak DjokovicAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-28Hard4-6 3-6 3-1 ret.

Taylor FritzAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-26Hard6-2 7-5 6-4

Tomas MachacAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-24Hard5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2

Lorenzo SonegoAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-22Hard6-3 6-3 6-4

Raphael CollignonAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-20Hard4-6 7-6(3) 7-5 3-2 ret.

Alexander BublikHong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong2026-01-11Hard7-6(2) 6-3

Andrey RublevHong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong2026-01-10Hard6-7(3) 7-5 6-4

Chak Lam Coleman WongHong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong2026-01-09Hard6-4 6-4

Tomas Martin EtcheverryHong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong2026-01-07Hard6-7(3) 6-2 6-4

Carlos AlcarazNitto ATP Finals - Turin2025-11-13I.Hard6-4 6-1

Alex De MinaurNitto ATP Finals - Turin2025-11-11I.Hard7-5 3-6 7-5

Taylor FritzNitto ATP Finals - Turin2025-11-10I.Hard6-3 6-4

Novak DjokovicHellenic Championship - Athens2025-11-08I.Hard4-6 6-3 7-5

Sebastian KordaHellenic Championship - Athens2025-11-07I.Hard6-0 5-7 7-5

Alexandre MullerHellenic Championship - Athens2025-11-06I.Hard6-2 6-4

Stan WawrinkaHellenic Championship - Athens2025-11-05I.Hard4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Lorenzo SonegoRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-29I.Hard3-6 6-3 6-1

Alexander ZverevErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-25I.Hard6-4 7-5

Corentin MoutetErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-24I.Hard6-3 6-4

Tomas Martin EtcheverryErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-23I.Hard6-3 6-4

Hamad MedjedovicErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-21I.Hard6-4 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardEuropean Open - Brussels2025-10-17I.Hard6-4 7-6(8)

Yannick HanfmannEuropean Open - Brussels2025-10-16I.Hard7-6(3) 7-5

Felix Auger AliassimeShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-08Hard6-4 6-2

Luciano DarderiShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-06Hard7-5 7-6(1)

Francisco ComesanaShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-0

Learner TienChina Open - Beijing2025-09-29Hard4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.

Adrian MannarinoChina Open - Beijing2025-09-28Hard6-3 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardChina Open - Beijing2025-09-26Hard7-6(3) 6-7(4) 6-4

Alejandro TabiloChengdu Open - Chengdu2025-09-23Hard6-3 2-6 7-6(5)

Alexander ShevchenkoChengdu Open - Chengdu2025-09-22Hard6-3 6-1

Nikoloz BasilashviliChengdu Open - Chengdu2025-09-21Hard6-3 6-3

Dino PrizmicChengdu Open - Chengdu2025-09-20Hard7-5 3-6 6-2

Jannik SinnerU.S. Open - New York2025-09-03Hard6-1 6-4 6-2

Jaume Antoni Munar ClarU.S. Open - New York2025-09-01Hard6-3 6-0 6-1

Flavio CobolliU.S. Open - New York2025-08-30Hard6-3 6-2 2-0 ret.

David GoffinU.S. Open - New York2025-08-28Hard6-4 6-0 6-2

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardU.S. Open - New York2025-08-26Hard6-7(3) 6-3 6-4 6-4

Benjamin BonziCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-09Hard5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

Simulate a match with MusettiGet win probability, VOPO edge vs Sharp Market odds, and Glicko-2 breakdown.

Open Simulator →