What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Lorenzo Musetti

ATP22d inactive

Glicko-22.120

#14 overall·RD 71

Elo2.163#13 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.100#18

Elo1.991#13

Clay

Glicko-22.193#10

Elo2.027#5

Grass

Glicko-21.731#32

Elo1.688#14

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-12Clay6-3 6-1

Francisco Cerundolo

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-10Clay7-6(7) 6-4

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-08Clay6-4 6-4

Jiri Lehecka

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-28Clay6-3 6-3

Tallon Griekspoor

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-26Clay6-4 7-5

Hubert Hurkacz

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-24Clay6-4 7-6(4)

Arthur Fils

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-17Clay6-3 6-4

Corentin Moutet

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-16Clay6-3 6-4

Martin Landaluce

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-14Clay7-5 6-2

Valentin Vacherot

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-08Clay7-6(6) 7-5

Marton Fucsovics

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-06Hard7-5 6-1

Novak Djokovic

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-28Hard4-6 3-6 3-1 ret.

Taylor Fritz

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-26Hard6-2 7-5 6-4

Tomas Machac

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-24Hard5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2

Lorenzo Sonego

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-22Hard6-3 6-3 6-4

Raphael Collignon

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-20Hard4-6 7-6(3) 7-5 3-2 ret.

Alexander Bublik

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-11Hard7-6(2) 6-3

Andrey Rublev

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-10Hard6-7(3) 7-5 6-4

Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-09Hard6-4 6-4

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-07Hard6-7(3) 6-2 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz

Nitto ATP Finals - Turin

2025-11-13I.Hard6-4 6-1

Alex De Minaur

Nitto ATP Finals - Turin

2025-11-11I.Hard7-5 3-6 7-5

Taylor Fritz

Nitto ATP Finals - Turin

2025-11-10I.Hard6-3 6-4

Novak Djokovic

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-08I.Hard4-6 6-3 7-5

Sebastian Korda

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-07I.Hard6-0 5-7 7-5

Alexandre Muller

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-06I.Hard6-2 6-4

Stan Wawrinka

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-05I.Hard4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Lorenzo Sonego

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-29I.Hard3-6 6-3 6-1

Alexander Zverev

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-25I.Hard6-4 7-5

Corentin Moutet

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-24I.Hard6-3 6-4

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-23I.Hard6-3 6-4

Hamad Medjedovic

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-21I.Hard6-4 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-17I.Hard6-4 7-6(8)

Yannick Hanfmann

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-16I.Hard7-6(3) 7-5

Felix Auger Aliassime

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-08Hard6-4 6-2

Luciano Darderi

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-06Hard7-5 7-6(1)

Francisco Comesana

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-0

Learner Tien

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-29Hard4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.

Adrian Mannarino

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-28Hard6-3 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-26Hard7-6(3) 6-7(4) 6-4

Alejandro Tabilo

Chengdu Open - Chengdu

2025-09-23Hard6-3 2-6 7-6(5)

Alexander Shevchenko

Chengdu Open - Chengdu

2025-09-22Hard6-3 6-1

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Chengdu Open - Chengdu

2025-09-21Hard6-3 6-3

Dino Prizmic

Chengdu Open - Chengdu

2025-09-20Hard7-5 3-6 6-2

Jannik Sinner

U.S. Open - New York

2025-09-03Hard6-1 6-4 6-2

Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

U.S. Open - New York

2025-09-01Hard6-3 6-0 6-1

Flavio Cobolli

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-30Hard6-3 6-2 2-0 ret.

David Goffin

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-28Hard6-4 6-0 6-2

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-26Hard6-7(3) 6-3 6-4 6-4

Benjamin Bonzi

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-09Hard5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

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