What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Daniel Merida Aguilar

MEN50Hot

Age21

BirthplaceMadrid, Spain

Height1.88m

Weight80kg

Best HandRight

BackhandTwo-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:75%

Fatigue:50/100

Inactive:3 Days

Overall

Glicko-22.015

#44RD 62

Elo2.031

#43

Hard

Glicko-22.017

#47

Elo1.812

#80

Clay

Glicko-22.080

#37

Elo1.890

#32

Grass

Glicko-21.435

#3073

Elo1.497

#2645

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20260-111-41-1

Recent Matches

Kyrian JacquetMillennium Estoril Open - Estoril2026-07-21Clay1-6 6-1 7-5

Damir DzumhurPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-18Clay6-2 5-7 6-2

Roman Andres BurruchagaPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-17Clay6-4 6-2

Titouan DroguetPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-16Clay6-1 6-3

Tomas Martin EtcheverryPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-15Clay7-5 6-4

Ziga SeskoPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-14Clay6-4 6-1

Daniil MedvedevWimbledon - London2026-07-01Grass3-6 6-3 7-5 6-2

Camilo Ugo CarabelliWimbledon - London2026-06-29Grass4-6 3-6 6-2 3-0 ret.

Martin DammHSBC Championships - London2026-06-13Grass6-3 6-2

Henrique RochaPerugia Challenger2026-06-07Clay7-6(5) 6-3

Andrea PellegrinoPerugia Challenger2026-06-06Clay6-3 5-7 6-3

Pablo Llamas RuizPerugia Challenger2026-06-05Clay6-1 6-2

Liam BroadyPerugia Challenger2026-06-04Clay6-4 6-2

Gianluca CadenassoPerugia Challenger2026-06-01Clay6-2 ret.

Ben SheltonFrench Open - Paris2026-05-25Clay6-3 6-3 6-4

Aleksandar KovacevicValencia Challenger2026-05-13Clay6-3 5-7 6-2

Nikoloz BasilashviliInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-07Clay6-4 2-6 6-3

Tomas Barrios VeraInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-05Clay6-3 3-6 7-6(4)

Mackenzie McdonaldInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-04Clay7-5 6-4

Stefanos TsitsipasMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-27Clay6-4 6-2

Corentin MoutetMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-25Clay6-3 6-4

Marco TrungellitiMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-23Clay6-4 1-6 7-6(6)

Marco TrungellitiMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-21Clay7-6(4) 6-3

Billy HarrisMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-20Clay6-3 7-5

Ethan QuinnBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-12Clay6-3 6-1

Francesco MaestrelliBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-11Clay7-5 6-4

Mariano NavoneTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-04-05Clay6-2 4-6 7-5

Fabian MarozsanTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-04-04Clay6-7(4) 6-3 6-1

Adrian MannarinoTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-04-03Clay4-6 6-2 6-2

Titouan DroguetTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-04-03Clay4-6 7-6(7) 3-1 ret.

Joel SchwaerzlerTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-03-31Clay6-2 6-2

Otto VirtanenTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-03-31Clay7-6(4) 5-7 7-5

Saba PurtseladzeTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-03-30Clay6-1 6-2

Max HoukesAlicante Challenger2026-03-24Clay3-6 6-3 6-4

Zachary SvajdaMiami Open - Miami2026-03-17Hard6-0 6-7(2) 6-2

Dalibor SvrcinaMiami Open - Miami2026-03-16Hard6-7(1) 6-4 7-6(6)

Marcos GironPhoenix Challenger2026-03-10Hard6-0 6-1

Alex MichelsenBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-05Hard6-3 6-4

Dane SweenyBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-03Hard6-3 4-6 6-3

Patrick KypsonBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-02Hard3-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Alejandro Moro CanasTenerife 2 Challenger2026-02-14Hard6-2 3-6 7-5

Tom GentzschTenerife 2 Challenger2026-02-13Hard6-1 6-4

Toby SamuelTenerife 2 Challenger2026-02-11Hard7-6(4) 6-3

Lorenzo GiustinoTenerife 2 Challenger2026-02-10Hard6-4 2-0 ret.

Francesco MaestrelliTenerife 1 Challenger2026-02-08Hard6-2 6-4

Stefano TravagliaTenerife 1 Challenger2026-02-07Hard6-1 3-6 7-5

Alejandro Moro CanasTenerife 1 Challenger2026-02-06Hard6-0 6-2

Alejo Sanchez QuilezTenerife 1 Challenger2026-02-05Hard7-5 6-3

Toby SamuelTenerife 1 Challenger2026-02-03Hard6-2 6-4

Mark LajalOeiras 1 Challenger2026-01-20I.Hard6-2 6-2

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