What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Joao Fonseca

MENHot

Age19

BirthplaceRio de Janeiro

Height1.88m

Weight81kg

Best HandRight

BackhandTwo-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:63%

Fatigue:0/100

Inactive:21 Days

Overall

Glicko-22.088

#22RD 71

Elo2.149

#15

Hard

Glicko-22.143

#11

Elo1.973

#17

Clay

Glicko-22.124

#20

Elo1.935

#14

Grass

Glicko-21.574

#142

Elo1.556

#96

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20264-310-72-2

202515-98-43-3

20247-15-50-1

2023—0-1—

Recent Matches

Roman SafiullinWimbledon - London2026-07-03Grass6-3 6-3 6-3

Jesper De JongWimbledon - London2026-07-01Grass6-1 7-5 6-4

Roberto Bautista AgutWimbledon - London2026-06-29Grass7-6(4) 6-4 6-3

Yannick HanfmannTerra Wortmann Open - Halle2026-06-16Grass6-2 6-2

Jakub MensikFrench Open - Paris2026-06-02Clay6-4 6-3 7-6(3)

Casper RuudFrench Open - Paris2026-05-31Clay7-5 7-6(8) 5-7 6-2

Novak DjokovicFrench Open - Paris2026-05-29Clay4-6 4-6 6-3 7-5 7-5

Dino PrizmicFrench Open - Paris2026-05-27Clay3-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-2

Luka PavlovicFrench Open - Paris2026-05-24Clay7-6(6) 6-4 6-2

Hamad MedjedovicInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-09Clay3-6 6-3 7-6(1)

Rafael JodarMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-26Clay7-6(4) 4-6 6-1

Ben SheltonBMW Open - Munich2026-04-17Clay6-3 3-6 6-3

Arthur RinderknechBMW Open - Munich2026-04-15Clay6-3 6-2

Alejandro TabiloBMW Open - Munich2026-04-14Clay7-6(1) 6-3

Alexander ZverevMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-10Clay7-5 6-7(3) 6-3

Matteo BerrettiniMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-09Clay6-3 6-2

Arthur RinderknechMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-08Clay7-5 4-6 6-3

Gabriel DialloMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-06Clay6-2 6-3

Carlos AlcarazMiami Open - Miami2026-03-20Hard6-4 6-4

Fabian MarozsanMiami Open - Miami2026-03-19Hard6-4 3-6 6-2

Jannik SinnerBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-10Hard7-6(6) 7-6(4)

Tommy PaulBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-08Hard6-2 6-3

Karen KhachanovBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-07Hard4-6 7-6(7) 6-4

Raphael CollignonBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-04Hard7-6(2) 6-4

Ignacio BuseRio Open - Rio de Janeiro2026-02-19Clay5-7 6-3 6-4

Thiago Moura MonteiroRio Open - Rio de Janeiro2026-02-17Clay7-6(1) 6-1

Alejandro TabiloArgentina Open - Buenos Aires2026-02-11Clay6-3 3-6 7-5

Eliot SpizzirriAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-20Hard6-4 2-6 6-1 6-2

Karen KhachanovRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-29I.Hard6-1 3-6 6-3

Denis ShapovalovRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-28I.Hard5-7 6-4 6-3

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-26I.Hard6-3 6-4

Jaume Antoni Munar ClarSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-25I.Hard7-6(4) 7-5

Denis ShapovalovSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-24I.Hard3-6 6-3 4-1 ret.

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-21I.Hard7-6(6) 6-3

Botic Van De ZandschulpEuropean Open - Brussels2025-10-14I.Hard7-5 7-6(2)

Flavio CobolliLaver Cup - San Francisco2025-09-19I.Hard6-4 6-3

Stefanos TsitsipasDavis Cup, Group I, 1R, GRE-BRA 1-32025-09-14Hard6-4 3-6 7-5

Tomas MachacU.S. Open - New York2025-08-27Hard7-6(4) 6-2 6-3

Miomir KecmanovicU.S. Open - New York2025-08-25Hard7-6(3) 7-6(5) 6-3

Terence AtmaneCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-11Hard6-3 6-4

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-09Hard6-7(4) 5-4 ret.

Bu YunchaoketeCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-07Hard4-6 6-2 7-5

Tristan SchoolkateNational Bank Open - Toronto2025-07-28Hard7-6(5) 6-4

Nicolas JarryWimbledon - London2025-07-04Grass6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6(4)

Jenson BrooksbyWimbledon - London2025-07-02Grass6-4 5-7 6-2 6-4

Jacob FearnleyWimbledon - London2025-06-30Grass6-4 6-1 7-6(5)

Taylor FritzRothesay International - Eastbourne2025-06-26Grass6-3 6-7(5) 7-5

Zizou BergsRothesay International - Eastbourne2025-06-23Grass6-7(8) 6-0 6-3

Flavio CobolliTerra Wortmann Open - Halle2025-06-17Grass5-7 7-6(3) 7-6(8)

Jack DraperFrench Open - Paris2025-05-31Clay6-2 6-4 6-2

Simulate a match with FonsecaGet win probability, VOPO edge vs Sharp Market odds, and Glicko-2 breakdown.

Open Simulator →