What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Joao Fonseca

ATP1d inactive95 High Fatigue

Glicko-22.111

#16 overall·RD 71

Elo2.186#10 overall

Recent Form

80% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.143#11

Elo1.973#17

Clay

Glicko-22.124#22

Elo1.935#14

Grass

Glicko-21.648#75

Elo1.527#143

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik

French Open - Paris

2026-06-02Clay6-4 6-3 7-6(3)

Casper Ruud

French Open - Paris

2026-05-31Clay7-5 7-6(8) 5-7 6-2

Novak Djokovic

French Open - Paris

2026-05-29Clay4-6 4-6 6-3 7-5 7-5

Dino Prizmic

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay3-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-2

Luka Pavlovic

French Open - Paris

2026-05-24Clay7-6(6) 6-4 6-2

Hamad Medjedovic

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-09Clay3-6 6-3 7-6(1)

Rafael Jodar

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-26Clay7-6(4) 4-6 6-1

Ben Shelton

BMW Open - Munich

2026-04-17Clay6-3 3-6 6-3

Arthur Rinderknech

BMW Open - Munich

2026-04-15Clay6-3 6-2

Alejandro Tabilo

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2026-04-14Clay7-6(1) 6-3

Alexander Zverev

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2026-04-10Clay7-5 6-7(3) 6-3

Matteo Berrettini

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Arthur Rinderknech

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Gabriel Diallo

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-06Clay6-2 6-3

Carlos Alcaraz

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Fabian Marozsan

Miami Open - Miami

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Jannik Sinner

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

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Tommy Paul

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Karen Khachanov

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Raphael Collignon

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Ignacio Buse

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

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Thiago Moura Monteiro

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Alejandro Tabilo

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

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Eliot Spizzirri

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-20Hard6-4 2-6 6-1 6-2

Karen Khachanov

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-29I.Hard6-1 3-6 6-3

Denis Shapovalov

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-28I.Hard5-7 6-4 6-3

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

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Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-25I.Hard7-6(4) 7-5

Denis Shapovalov

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2025-10-24I.Hard3-6 6-3 4-1 ret.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-21I.Hard7-6(6) 6-3

Botic Van De Zandschulp

European Open - Brussels

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Flavio Cobolli

Laver Cup - San Francisco

2025-09-19I.Hard6-4 6-3

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, GRE-BRA 1-3

2025-09-14Hard6-4 3-6 7-5

Tomas Machac

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-27Hard7-6(4) 6-2 6-3

Miomir Kecmanovic

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-25Hard7-6(3) 7-6(5) 6-3

Terence Atmane

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-11Hard6-3 6-4

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-09Hard6-7(4) 5-4 ret.

Bu Yunchaokete

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-07Hard4-6 6-2 7-5

Tristan Schoolkate

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-28Hard7-6(5) 6-4

Nicolas Jarry

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-04Grass6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6(4)

Jenson Brooksby

Wimbledon - London

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Jacob Fearnley

Wimbledon - London

2025-06-30Grass6-4 6-1 7-6(5)

Taylor Fritz

Rothesay International - Eastbourne

2025-06-26Grass6-3 6-7(5) 7-5

Zizou Bergs

Rothesay International - Eastbourne

2025-06-23Grass6-7(8) 6-0 6-3

Flavio Cobolli

Terra Wortmann Open - Halle

2025-06-17Grass5-7 7-6(3) 7-6(8)

Jack Draper

French Open - Paris

2025-05-31Clay6-2 6-4 6-2

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

French Open - Paris

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Hubert Hurkacz

French Open - Paris

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Fabian Marozsan

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2025-05-08Clay6-3 7-6(4)

Jesper De Jong

Estoril Challenger

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