What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Frances Tiafoe

ATP2d inactive100 High Fatigue

Glicko-22.065

#28 overall·RD 68

Elo2.114#22 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.096#20

Elo1.991#14

Clay

Glicko-22.074#39

Elo1.875#37

Grass

Glicko-21.500#198

Elo1.611#42

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi

French Open - Paris

2026-06-01Clay7-6(5) 6-7(5) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4

Jaime Faria

French Open - Paris

2026-05-30Clay4-6 6-7(2) 7-6(4) 6-1 6-2

Hubert Hurkacz

French Open - Paris

2026-05-28Clay6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-4 6-7(1) 6-4

Eliot Spizzirri

French Open - Paris

2026-05-25Clay6-3 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-20Clay7-6(3) 7-6(4)

Diego Dedura

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-17Clay6-4 6-4

Andrea Pellegrino

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-11Clay7-6(8) 6-1

Ignacio Buse

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-09Clay6-7(5) 6-3 6-2

Alexei Popyrin

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-04Clay3-6 6-4 7-6(6)

Tommy Paul

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-04Clay7-5 4-6 7-6(7)

Rinky Hijikata

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-03Clay6-4 3-6 6-2

Jannik Sinner

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-26Hard6-2 6-2

Terence Atmane

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-24Hard6-4 1-6 6-4

Jakub Mensik

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-23Hard7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(11)

Arthur Cazaux

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-21Hard7-6(1) 6-1

Alexander Zverev

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-10Hard6-3 6-4

Flavio Cobolli

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-08Hard6-1 6-2

Jenson Brooksby

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-06Hard6-4 6-2

Flavio Cobolli