Q: How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Q: Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Question 1

What is VOPO in tennis betting?

Accepted Answer

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal XGBoost win probability and the no-vig implied probability from Pinnacle's closing odds. A positive VOPO means the model estimates the player's true probability to be higher than what the market prices in.

Question 2

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Accepted Answer

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when 15% < VOPO ≤ 20%, the internal XGBoost win probability is above 60%, and the match is not played on Grass — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

Question 3

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Accepted Answer

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Question 4

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

Accepted Answer

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Support