What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Alex Michelsen

ATP5d inactive50 Low Fatigue

Glicko-22.005

#47 overall·RD 66

Elo2.040#40 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.058#29

Elo1.942#21

Clay

Glicko-21.884#173

Elo1.662#352

Grass

Glicko-21.654#74

Elo1.561#85

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar

French Open - Paris

2026-05-29Clay7-6(2) 6-7(5) 4-6 6-3 6-3

Nishesh Basavareddy

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 6-3

Alexander Shevchenko

French Open - Paris

2026-05-25Clay6-2 6-4 6-2

Learner Tien

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2026-05-21Clay6-4 3-6 6-1

Stan Wawrinka

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2026-05-20Clay7-6(1) 7-6(4)

Sebastian Baez

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2026-05-18Clay7-5 6-3

Sebastian Ofner

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-07Clay6-3 6-3

Pol Martin Tiffon

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-04-30Clay6-4 3-6 6-3

Jiri Lehecka

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-26Clay6-4 6-2

Jan-Lennard Struff

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-24Clay6-2 6-1

Arthur Rinderknech

BMW Open - Munich

2026-04-13Clay6-3 6-3

Alexei Popyrin

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-03Clay6-0 4-6 6-1

Chak Lam Coleman Wong

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-01Clay6-4 6-2

Jannik Sinner

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-24Hard7-5 7-6(4)

Alejandro Tabilo

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-23Hard3-6 6-3 6-4

Cameron Norrie

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-21Hard7-5 6-7(4) 6-4

Mattia Bellucci

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-19Hard6-2 6-1

Daniil Medvedev

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-11Hard6-2 6-4

Taylor Fritz

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-09Hard6-4 7-6(6)

Ugo Humbert

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-07Hard7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(6)

Daniel Merida Aguilar

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-05Hard6-3 6-4

Sebastian Korda

Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach

2026-02-18Hard6-3 7-6(6)

Valentin Vacherot

Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach

2026-02-16Hard7-6(4) 6-4

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Dallas Open - Dallas

2026-02-11I.Hard6-4 6-4

Grigor Dimitrov

Dallas Open - Dallas

2026-02-10I.Hard5-7 6-4 6-4

Karen Khachanov

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-20Hard4-6 6-4 6-3 5-7 6-3

Marcos Giron

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-14Hard6-4 6-4

Mariano Navone

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-13Hard2-6 6-2 7-5

Daniil Medvedev

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-10Hard6-4 6-2

Sebastian Korda

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-09Hard6-3 7-6(7)

Learner Tien

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-07Hard6-4 6-2

James Duckworth

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-05Hard6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-3

Zizou Bergs

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-27I.Hard6-3 2-6 6-2

Francisco Cerundolo

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-21I.Hard6-3 6-1

Corentin Moutet

Almaty Open - Almaty

2025-10-18I.Hard7-5 6-4

Shintaro Mochizuki

Almaty Open - Almaty

2025-10-17I.Hard6-3 3-6 6-2

Aleksandar Vukic

Almaty Open - Almaty

2025-10-16I.Hard6-3 6-2

Beibit Zhukayev

Almaty Open - Almaty

2025-10-15I.Hard6-2 6-3

Arthur Rinderknech

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-04Hard6-3 6-4

Ethan Quinn

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-25Hard7-5 6-2

Jakub Mensik

Laver Cup - San Francisco

2025-09-19I.Hard6-1 6-7(3) 10-8

Francisco Comesana

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-25Hard1-6 6-3 6-4 6-4

Holger Rune

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-11Hard7-6(4) 6-3

Corentin Moutet

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-09Hard3-6 6-3 6-4

Karen Khachanov

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-04Hard6-4 7-6(3)

Learner Tien

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-02Hard6-3 6-3

Lorenzo Musetti

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-31Hard3-6 7-6(4) 6-4

Tomas Barrios Vera

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-29Hard7-6(7) 6-3

Daniel Evans

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-22Hard6-4 6-4

Miomir Kecmanovic

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-01Grass6-2 3-6 6-3 3-6 7-6(6)

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