OUT-OF-SAMPLE BACKTEST · VALIDATION PERIOD 2025
Prediction Accuracy
72.8%98,612 matches
Brier Score0.1775lower = better · random = 0.25
vs Baseline+9.8%over random 63.0%
01Warm-up2021 – 2022Ratings initialised · Glicko-2 convergence
02Training2023 – 2024XGBoost trained · Optuna 300-trial tuning
03Validation202598,612 matches · no lookahead
Men72.7%
56,600 matches
Women72.9%
42,012 matches
Hard72.6%
54,013 matches
Clay73.2%
41,870 matches
Grass65.0%
1,639 matches
Grand Slam68.2%
1,907 matches
Masters62.6%
2,145 matches
25065.6%
3,562 matches
Challenger70.5%
29,759 matches
ITF74.8%
61,239 matches
2025 Predictions(200 matches)
| Date | Match | Surface | Circuit | Predicted | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | Maxime Janvier vs Silvio MencagliaM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Maxime Janvier | ✗ |
| 2025-12-31 | Denys Klok vs Andrea M'ChichM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Denys Klok | ✗ |
| 2025-12-31 | Younes Lalami Laaroussi vs Diego DeduraM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Diego Dedura | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Ioannis Kountourakis vs Filip Cristian JianuM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Filip Cristian Jianu | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Atharva Sharma vs Nicolas Garcia LongoM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Nicolas Garcia Longo | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Adrian Andreev vs Yassine SmiejM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Adrian Andreev | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Sean Cuenin vs Yuki IkedaM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Sean Cuenin | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Michiel De Krom vs Marco MiglioratiM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Michiel De Krom | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Amine JamjiM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Pierre Delage vs Gabriele MellerioM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Pierre Delage | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Andrey Chepelev vs Ali MissoumM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Andrey Chepelev | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Noah Perfetti vs Leonardo PrimucciM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Noah Perfetti | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Lenny Petit vs Reda BennaniM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Reda Bennani | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Fumin Jiang vs Nicolo ToffaninM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Nicolo Toffanin | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Iannis Miletich vs Ghali Salah-EddineM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Iannis Miletich | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Adriano Botta vs Yazid LahjomriM25 Marrakech 1 | Clay | Men | Yazid Lahjomri | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Aldin Setkic vs Matei TodoranM15 Monastir 48 | Hard | Men | Aldin Setkic | ✗ |
| 2025-12-31 | Anmar Faleh Alhogbani vs Rajat ShirurM15 Monastir 48 | Hard | Men | Anmar Faleh Alhogbani | ✗ |
| 2025-12-31 | Edward Etty vs Chinmaya Dev ChauhanM15 Monastir 48 | Hard | Men | Edward Etty | ✓ |
| 2025-12-31 | Nicolas Tepmahc vs Daniil SarksianM15 Monastir 48 | Hard | Men | Nicolas Tepmahc | ✗ |
Maxime Janvier vs Silvio MencagliaM25 Marrakech 1
✗2025-12-31ClayMen→ Maxime Janvier
Denys Klok vs Andrea M'ChichM25 Marrakech 1
✗2025-12-31ClayMen→ Denys Klok
Younes Lalami Laaroussi vs Diego DeduraM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Diego Dedura
Ioannis Kountourakis vs Filip Cristian JianuM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Filip Cristian Jianu
Atharva Sharma vs Nicolas Garcia LongoM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Nicolas Garcia Longo
Adrian Andreev vs Yassine SmiejM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Adrian Andreev
Sean Cuenin vs Yuki IkedaM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Sean Cuenin
Michiel De Krom vs Marco MiglioratiM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Michiel De Krom
Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Amine JamjiM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Pierre Delage vs Gabriele MellerioM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Pierre Delage
Andrey Chepelev vs Ali MissoumM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Andrey Chepelev
Noah Perfetti vs Leonardo PrimucciM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Noah Perfetti
Lenny Petit vs Reda BennaniM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Reda Bennani
Fumin Jiang vs Nicolo ToffaninM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Nicolo Toffanin
Iannis Miletich vs Ghali Salah-EddineM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Iannis Miletich
Adriano Botta vs Yazid LahjomriM25 Marrakech 1
✓2025-12-31ClayMen→ Yazid Lahjomri
Aldin Setkic vs Matei TodoranM15 Monastir 48
✗2025-12-31HardMen→ Aldin Setkic
Anmar Faleh Alhogbani vs Rajat ShirurM15 Monastir 48
✗2025-12-31HardMen→ Anmar Faleh Alhogbani
Edward Etty vs Chinmaya Dev ChauhanM15 Monastir 48
✓2025-12-31HardMen→ Edward Etty
Nicolas Tepmahc vs Daniil SarksianM15 Monastir 48
✗2025-12-31HardMen→ Nicolas Tepmahc
Page 1 of 10 · 200 matches