What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Tommy Paul

ATP5d inactive57 Moderate Fatigue

Glicko-22.133

#10 overall·RD 67

Elo2.152#16 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.092#21

Elo1.984#15

Clay

Glicko-22.220#7

Elo1.967#10

Grass

Glicko-21.624#90

Elo1.688#15

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud

French Open - Paris

2026-05-29Clay4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(4) 7-5

Lorenzo Sonego

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay6-3 6-2 6-4

Rinky Hijikata

French Open - Paris

2026-05-25Clay4-6 6-3 7-5 6-4

Ignacio Buse

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-23Clay7-6(6) 4-6 6-3

Alex De Minaur

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-22Clay2-6 6-3 6-3

Daniel Altmaier

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-21Clay6-2 7-5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-20Clay6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(7)

Ethan Quinn

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-17Clay6-1 6-3

Luciano Darderi

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-10Clay3-6 6-3 6-2

Aleksandar Vukic

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-08Clay6-4 6-2

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-24Clay7-5 6-4

Roman Andres Burruchaga

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-05Clay6-1 3-6 7-5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-04Clay6-4 6-2

Frances Tiafoe

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-04Clay7-5 4-6 7-6(7)

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston

2026-04-02Clay3-6 6-4 6-4

Arthur Fils

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-25Hard6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(6)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-24Hard6-1 6-3

Raphael Collignon

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-22Hard6-2 3-6 7-6(5)

Adrian Mannarino

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard6-2 2-6 6-4

Joao Fonseca

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-08Hard6-2 6-3

Zizou Bergs

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-06Hard6-1 6-2

Sebastian Korda