What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Karen Khachanov

ATP5d inactive48 Low Fatigue

Glicko-21.994

#52 overall·RD 67

Elo2.023#46 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.963#88

Elo1.835#59

Clay

Glicko-22.020#59

Elo1.870#43

Grass

Glicko-21.767#24

Elo1.687#16

Recent Matches

Jesper De Jong

French Open - Paris

2026-05-29Clay7-5 5-7 6-2 6-7(2) 6-2

Marco Trungelliti

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay7-6(5) 5-7 6-1 7-6(4)

Arthur Gea

French Open - Paris

2026-05-24Clay6-3 7-6(3) 6-0

Ugo Humbert

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-20Clay6-3 3-6 7-6(3)

Hugo Gaston

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-19Clay3-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Casper Ruud

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-13Clay6-1 1-6 6-2

Dino Prizmic

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-12Clay6-1 7-6(2)

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-10Clay5-7 6-4 6-4

Alexander Shevchenko

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-08Clay6-4 6-4

Jakub Mensik

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-27Clay6-4 7-6(11)

Adam Walton

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-25Clay6-2 6-3

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-14Clay6-3 6-4

Arthur Rinderknech

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-06Clay7-5 6-2

Martin Landaluce

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-22Hard6-3 7-6(2)

Roberto Bautista Agut

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard6-3 6-3

Joao Fonseca

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-07Hard4-6 7-6(7) 6-4

Jenson Brooksby

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai

2026-02-25Hard7-6(6) 6-4

Alexander Shevchenko

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai

2026-02-24Hard6-7(5) 6-2 6-3

Carlos Alcaraz

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

2026-02-19Hard6-7(3) 6-4 6-3

Marton Fucsovics

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

2026-02-18Hard6-2 4-6 6-4

Shintaro Mochizuki

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

2026-02-17Hard6-1 3-6 6-4

Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam

2026-02-12I.Hard7-6(8) 3-6 6-3

Jesper De Jong

ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam

2026-02-11I.Hard3-6 6-4 7-5

Luciano Darderi

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-24Hard7-6(5) 3-6 6-3 6-4

Nishesh Basavareddy

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-22Hard6-1 6-4 6-3

Alex Michelsen

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-20Hard4-6 6-4 6-3 5-7 6-3

Michael Mmoh

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-08Hard7-6(2) 7-6(4)

Alex De Minaur

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-30I.Hard6-2 6-2

Joao Fonseca

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-29I.Hard6-1 3-6 6-3

Ethan Quinn

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-27I.Hard6-1 6-1

Tallon Griekspoor

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-20I.Hard6-3 5-7 6-4

Jan-Lennard Struff

Almaty Open - Almaty

2025-10-16I.Hard4-6 7-6(5) 6-3

Juncheng Shang

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-04Hard7-6(3) 6-3

Alexandre Muller

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-25Hard4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Kamil Majchrzak

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-28Hard2-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-5 7-6(5)

Nishesh Basavareddy

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-25Hard6-7(5) 6-3 7-5 6-1

Alexander Zverev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-13Hard7-5 3-0 ret.

Jenson Brooksby

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-12Hard6-3 6-3

Valentin Royer

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-10Hard6-4 7-6(6)

Ben Shelton

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-07Hard6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(3)

Alexander Zverev

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-06Hard6-3 4-6 7-6(4)

Alex Michelsen

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-04Hard6-4 7-6(3)

Casper Ruud

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-02Hard6-4 7-5

Emilio Nava

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-31Hard6-7(6) 6-4 6-1

Juan Pablo Ficovich

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-29Hard6-4 6-2

Taylor Fritz

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-08Grass6-3 6-4 1-6 7-6(4)

Kamil Majchrzak

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-06Grass6-4 6-2 6-3

Nuno Borges

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-04Grass7-6(6) 4-6 4-6 6-3 7-6(8)

Shintaro Mochizuki

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-02Grass1-6 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3 6-4

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Wimbledon - London

2025-06-30Grass7-5 6-4 6-4

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