What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ATP7d inactive

Glicko-22.023

#41 overall·RD 71

Elo2.021#48 overall

Recent Form

40% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.035#35

Elo1.896#34

Clay

Glicko-22.026#54

Elo1.806#84

Grass

Glicko-21.708#39

Elo1.580#62

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay4-6 7-6(4) 6-1 6-3

Damir Dzumhur

French Open - Paris

2026-05-24Clay6-7(3) 6-3 2-6 7-5 6-3

Alex De Minaur

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-20Clay6-2 4-6 6-4

Corentin Moutet

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-18Clay6-4 6-4

Andrey Rublev

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-11Clay6-4 6-4

Cristian Garin

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-09Clay7-6(2) 6-4

Casper Ruud

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-27Clay6-3 6-1

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-25Clay6-3 6-3

Quentin Halys

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-21Hard7-6(8) 6-4

Learner Tien

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-10Hard4-6 6-1 7-6(4)

Jakub Mensik

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-08Hard6-2 4-6 6-2

Zachary Svajda

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-06Hard7-6(0) 6-2

Mattia Bellucci

Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco

2026-02-25Hard6-3 6-3

Daniel Altmaier

Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco

2026-02-23Hard7-5 6-3

Denis Shapovalov

Dallas Open - Dallas

2026-02-13I.Hard5-7 6-4 6-3

Alex Michelsen

Dallas Open - Dallas

2026-02-11I.Hard6-4 6-4

Zachary Svajda

Dallas Open - Dallas

2026-02-09I.Hard6-4 7-6(1)

Tommy Paul

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-23Hard6-1 6-1 ret.

Reilly Opelka

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-21Hard6-3 7-6(3) 5-7 4-6 6-4

Filip Misolic

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-19Hard6-2 6-3 6-3

Ugo Humbert

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-16Hard6-3 5-7 7-6(4)

Valentin Vacherot

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-15Hard7-6(4) 6-2

Rinky Hijikata

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-14Hard6-3 6-2

Brandon Nakashima

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-06Hard7-6(4) 6-4

Alexander Zverev

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-30I.Hard6-2 6-4

Arthur Cazaux

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-29I.Hard7-6(5) 6-4

Valentin Royer

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-28I.Hard4-6 6-1 6-4

Joao Fonseca

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-26I.Hard6-3 6-4

Ugo Humbert

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-25I.Hard7-6(4) 3-1 ret.

Casper Ruud

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-24I.Hard7-6(1) ret.

Jenson Brooksby

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-22I.Hard6-7(6) 6-4 7-5

Lorenzo Sonego

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-20I.Hard7-6(2) 6-4

Raphael Collignon

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-17I.Hard7-6(5) 6-1

Marcos Giron

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-15I.Hard6-7(5) 6-1 6-4

Daniil Medvedev

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-06Hard6-3 7-6(5)

Matteo Arnaldi

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-4

Daniil Medvedev

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-28Hard6-3 6-3

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-25Hard6-1 6-3

Arthur Rinderknech

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-27Hard6-4 3-6 2-6 6-2 6-3

Alexander Shevchenko

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-24Hard6-1 6-1 6-2

Joao Fonseca

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-09Hard6-7(4) 5-4 ret.

Andrey Rublev

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-03Hard6-7(3) 7-6(2) 3-0 ret.

Jakub Mensik

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-01Hard6-2 6-4

Corentin Moutet

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-30Hard6-4 6-3

Alex De Minaur

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-27Hard5-7 6-1 7-6(3)

Ben Shelton

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-26Hard6-2 7-5

Taylor Fritz

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-25Hard7-6(3) 3-6 7-5

Learner Tien

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-24Hard6-2 6-2

Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-23Hard6-4 6-2

James Duckworth

Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos

2025-07-16Hard6-3 6-4

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