What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

MENHot

Age27

BirthplaceMalaga, Spain

Height1.80m

Weight80kg

Best HandRight

BackhandTwo-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:75%

Fatigue:14/100

Inactive:8 Days

Overall

Glicko-22.064

#28RD 64

Elo2.102

#26

Hard

Glicko-22.035

#37

Elo1.896

#33

Clay

Glicko-22.027

#57

Elo1.811

#82

Grass

Glicko-21.823

#18

Elo1.679

#22

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20269-75-59-3

202530-179-65-2

202415-172-50-1

202322-178-82-3

20227-1511-83-3

202112-1414-71-2

Recent Matches

Alex MolcanPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-16Clay3-6 6-1 6-2

Marco TrungellitiPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-15Clay6-4 7-5

Felix Auger AliassimeWimbledon - London2026-07-05Grass6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1

Marton FucsovicsWimbledon - London2026-07-03Grass7-6(3) 6-2 6-3

Fabian MarozsanWimbledon - London2026-07-01Grass6-3 6-0 6-3

Juan Manuel CerundoloWimbledon - London2026-06-29Grass6-4 6-4 7-6(2)

Ethan QuinnMallorca Championships - Mallorca2026-06-27Grass7-6(4) 6-3

Fabian MarozsanMallorca Championships - Mallorca2026-06-26Grass5-7 6-2 6-4

Grigor DimitrovMallorca Championships - Mallorca2026-06-25Grass6-3 6-3

Adam WaltonMallorca Championships - Mallorca2026-06-24Grass6-4 7-5

Tommy PaulHSBC Championships - London2026-06-19Grass6-3 7-6(4)

Corentin MoutetHSBC Championships - London2026-06-18Grass6-4 6-3

Cameron NorrieHSBC Championships - London2026-06-16Grass7-6(6) 6-2

Mattia BellucciBoss Open - Stuttgart2026-06-08Grass6-2 6-7(5) 6-1

Thiago Agustin TiranteFrench Open - Paris2026-05-27Clay4-6 7-6(4) 6-1 6-3

Damir DzumhurFrench Open - Paris2026-05-24Clay6-7(3) 6-3 2-6 7-5 6-3

Alex De MinaurHamburg Open - Hamburg2026-05-20Clay6-2 4-6 6-4

Corentin MoutetHamburg Open - Hamburg2026-05-18Clay6-4 6-4

Andrey RublevInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-11Clay6-4 6-4

Cristian GarinInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-09Clay7-6(2) 6-4

Casper RuudMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-27Clay6-3 6-1

Pablo Carreno-BustaMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-25Clay6-3 6-3

Quentin HalysMiami Open - Miami2026-03-21Hard7-6(8) 6-4

Learner TienBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-10Hard4-6 6-1 7-6(4)

Jakub MensikBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-08Hard6-2 4-6 6-2

Zachary SvajdaBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-06Hard7-6(0) 6-2

Mattia BellucciAbierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco2026-02-25Hard6-3 6-3

Daniel AltmaierAbierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco2026-02-23Hard7-5 6-3

Denis ShapovalovDallas Open - Dallas2026-02-13I.Hard5-7 6-4 6-3

Alex MichelsenDallas Open - Dallas2026-02-11I.Hard6-4 6-4

Zachary SvajdaDallas Open - Dallas2026-02-09I.Hard6-4 7-6(1)

Tommy PaulAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-23Hard6-1 6-1 ret.

Reilly OpelkaAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-21Hard6-3 7-6(3) 5-7 4-6 6-4

Filip MisolicAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-19Hard6-2 6-3 6-3

Ugo HumbertAdelaide International - Adelaide2026-01-16Hard6-3 5-7 7-6(4)

Valentin VacherotAdelaide International - Adelaide2026-01-15Hard7-6(4) 6-2

Rinky HijikataAdelaide International - Adelaide2026-01-14Hard6-3 6-2

Brandon NakashimaBrisbane International - Brisbane2026-01-06Hard7-6(4) 6-4

Alexander ZverevRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-30I.Hard6-2 6-4

Arthur CazauxRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-29I.Hard7-6(5) 6-4

Valentin RoyerRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-28I.Hard4-6 6-1 6-4

Joao FonsecaSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-26I.Hard6-3 6-4

Ugo HumbertSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-25I.Hard7-6(4) 3-1 ret.

Casper RuudSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-24I.Hard7-6(1) ret.

Jenson BrooksbySwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-22I.Hard6-7(6) 6-4 7-5

Lorenzo SonegoSwiss Indoors Basel - Basel2025-10-20I.Hard7-6(2) 6-4

Raphael CollignonEuropean Open - Brussels2025-10-17I.Hard7-6(5) 6-1

Marcos GironEuropean Open - Brussels2025-10-15I.Hard6-7(5) 6-1 6-4

Daniil MedvedevShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-06Hard6-3 7-6(5)

Matteo ArnaldiShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-4

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