What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal XGBoost win probability and the no-vig implied probability from Pinnacle's closing odds. A positive VOPO means the model estimates the player's true probability to be higher than what the market prices in.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when 15% < VOPO ≤ 20%, the internal XGBoost win probability is above 60%, and the match is not played on Grass — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Men's
Rankings.

Q: How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Q: Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

UPDATED: OCTOBER 23, 2026 AT 04:00 AM UTC

Rank	Player	Recent Form	Glicko Pts	RD	Hard	Clay	Grass
#1▲1	Jannik Sinner-	W W W W W	2.524(#1)	81	2.513(#1)	2.600(#1)	2.324(#1)
#2▼1	Carlos Alcaraz-Hot	W W W W L	2.368(#2)	86	2.392(#2)	2.531(#2)	1.867(#8)
#3▲4	Alexander Zverev-38Hot	W W W W L	2.289(#3)	65	2.287(#4)	2.396(#3)	2.029(#3)
#4▼1	Novak Djokovic-	W W W W L	2.252(#4)	82	2.261(#6)	2.089(#33)	2.099(#2)
#5▲7	Arthur Fils-	W W L W L	2.209(#5)	71	2.217(#9)	2.355(#4)	1.559(#154)
#6▲78	Rafael Jodar-58Hot	W W W W L	2.188(#6)	64	2.216(#10)	2.318(#5)	1.581(#125)
#7▲3	Ben Shelton-	L L L W L	2.174(#7)	66	2.265(#5)	2.065(#44)	1.935(#5)
#8▼3	Alex De Minaur-Hot	W L W W L	2.172(#8)	65	2.221(#7)	2.128(#19)	1.861(#10)
#9▲14	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina-48Hot	W W W W W	2.170(#9)	67	2.305(#3)	2.027(#61)	1.823(#17)
#10▼2	Jiri Lehecka-Hot	W L W L W	2.162(#10)	67	2.194(#13)	2.149(#16)	1.823(#18)
#11▲7	Daniil Medvedev-47Hot	W W W L W	2.157(#11)	64	2.185(#14)	2.100(#28)	1.742(#31)
#12▼1	Tommy Paul-47Hot	W W W L W	2.155(#12)	69	2.141(#21)	2.220(#7)	1.727(#35)
#13▲46	Frances Tiafoe-Rising	L W L W L	2.154(#13)	64	2.208(#12)	2.074(#38)	1.887(#7)
#14▼10	Taylor Fritz-	L L W L W	2.135(#14)	70	2.149(#19)	1.732(#516)	2.016(#4)
#15▲1	Felix Auger Aliassime-	W L W W L	2.129(#15)	71	2.114(#30)	2.097(#29)	1.796(#21)
#16▼1	Casper Ruud-Hot	L W W W L	2.124(#16)	72	2.073(#40)	2.284(#6)	1.432(#4495)
#17▲5	Joao Fonseca-	W W L W W	2.120(#17)	77	2.214(#11)	2.124(#20)	1.574(#137)
#18▲16	Brandon Nakashima-44Hot	L W L W W	2.116(#18)	66	2.181(#15)	1.927(#127)	1.773(#25)
#19	Hubert Hurkacz-Hot	L W W W L	2.116(#19)	63	2.171(#16)	2.073(#39)	1.756(#28)
#20▲43	Stefanos Tsitsipas-47Hot	W W L W W	2.102(#20)	64	2.147(#20)	2.142(#17)	1.504(#227)
#21▼12	Lorenzo Musetti-	W L L W W	2.100(#21)	78	2.081(#38)	2.193(#9)	1.634(#80)
#22▼5	Learner Tien-	W L L W L	2.095(#22)	67	2.109(#31)	2.123(#21)	1.548(#164)
#23▲8	Sebastian Korda-	W L W W L	2.093(#23)	67	2.101(#35)	1.914(#146)	1.506(#221)
#24▲3	Francisco Cerundolo-Hot	W L W L W	2.086(#24)	68	2.089(#36)	2.113(#24)	1.722(#37)
#25▲17	Jakub Mensik-	W L W W L	2.085(#25)	66	2.126(#23)	2.161(#15)	1.584(#121)
#26▲64	Alex Michelsen-Hot	L L L W W	2.070(#26)	68	2.165(#17)	1.884(#195)	1.629(#85)
#27▼7	Karen Khachanov-46Hot	W W L W W	2.068(#27)	68	2.106(#33)	2.020(#65)	1.686(#52)
#28▼15	Alexander Bublik-Rising	L L W W L	2.064(#28)	71	2.089(#37)	2.018(#68)	1.893(#6)
#29▲250	Arthur Gea-Hot	W W W W L	2.062(#29)	62	2.219(#8)	1.893(#178)	1.533(#181)
#30▲10	Flavio Cobolli-	L L L L W	2.062(#30)	71	2.013(#61)	2.169(#14)	1.777(#24)
#31▲68	Daniel Merida Aguilar-	W W L W L	2.054(#31)	67	2.115(#29)	2.106(#26)	1.435(#4487)
#32▲100	Alexander Blockx-	W W L L L	2.051(#32)	70	2.005(#68)	2.183(#12)	1.519(#195)
#33▲140	Roman Safiullin-48Hot	W L W W L	2.045(#33)	65	2.024(#54)	2.192(#10)	1.723(#36)
#34▼28	Jack Draper-	W W L L L	2.044(#34)	93	2.015(#60)	2.088(#34)	1.815(#19)
#35▼3	Andrey Rublev-Cold	W W L L L	2.043(#35)	68	2.008(#64)	2.220(#8)	1.539(#177)
#36▲34	Valentin Vacherot-	W L W L L	2.043(#36)	71	2.058(#44)	2.094(#30)	1.415(#4519)
#37▲83	Titouan Droguet-Hot	W W W W L	2.042(#37)	64	2.121(#25)	2.058(#45)	1.570(#139)
#38▲62	Lloyd Harris-Rising	W W W W L	2.041(#38)	60	2.108(#32)	1.786(#374)	1.401(#4543)
#39▲83	Botic Van De Zandschulp-Hot	W W W L L	2.033(#39)	64	2.116(#28)	1.922(#134)	1.466(#4425)
#40▲43	Zizou Bergs-42Hot	W W L W W	2.032(#40)	66	2.046(#47)	1.888(#188)	1.846(#11)
#41▲69	Soon-Woo Kwon-	W W L W W	2.027(#41)	70	2.067(#42)	1.500(#1599)	1.608(#102)
#42▲208	Luca Van Assche-35Rising	L L L W W	2.019(#42)	67	2.048(#45)	2.050(#48)	1.361(#4610)
#43▲221	Quentin Halys-Rising	W L W W L	2.017(#43)	64	2.008(#65)	2.114(#23)	1.516(#200)
#44▲61	Thiago Agustin Tirante-	W L W L L	2.016(#44)	71	1.989(#87)	2.135(#18)	1.417(#4517)
#45▲3	Denis Shapovalov-	W L W W L	2.014(#45)	68	2.124(#24)	1.765(#413)	1.428(#4501)
#46▲5	Jaume Antoni Munar Clar-Hot	W W L L W	2.013(#46)	71	2.157(#18)	1.919(#138)	1.663(#64)
#47▲9	Raphael Collignon-32Cold	L L L W L	2.009(#47)	75	1.868(#253)	2.122(#22)	1.581(#126)
#48▲6	Oliver Tarvet-43Hot	W L W W W	2.008(#48)	72	2.119(#26)	1.500(#1600)	1.608(#103)
#49▼12	Luciano Darderi-	L W L L L	2.004(#49)	68	1.943(#129)	2.179(#13)	1.472(#4412)
#50▼24	Dino Prizmic-	W W W L L	2.002(#50)	73	1.939(#137)	2.107(#25)	1.500(#236)

Men's Rankings.

Men's
Rankings.