What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Roberto Bautista Agut

ATP1d inactive31 Low Fatigue

Glicko-21.839

#248 overall·RD 72

Elo1.814#246 overall

Recent Form

20% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.854#263

Elo1.702#275

Clay

Glicko-21.751#432

Elo1.634#451

Grass

Glicko-21.686#50

Elo1.629#30

Recent Matches

Hynek Barton

Prostejov Challenger

2026-06-02Clay6-4 6-7(5) 7-5

Brandon Nakashima

French Open - Paris

2026-05-25Clay6-2 7-5 6-2

Zizou Bergs

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-14Clay6-7(5) 6-3 6-3

Pedro Martinez Portero

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-13Clay6-3 6-1

Brandon Nakashima

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-09Clay6-4 6-0

Francesco Maestrelli

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-07Clay6-3 7-6(2)

Alejandro Tabilo

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-04-30Clay4-6 6-2 6-4

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-04-29Clay7-5 6-2

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-22Clay6-2 6-4

Matteo Berrettini

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-07Clay4-0 ret.

Alexander Shevchenko

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-05Clay7-6(3) 7-6(4)

Benjamin Bonzi

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-04Clay6-4 6-3

Titouan Droguet

Tiriac Open - Bucharest

2026-03-31Clay6-1 1-6 6-1

Karen Khachanov

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard6-3 6-3

James Duckworth

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-19Hard7-6(3) 7-6(4)

Valentin Royer

Cap Cana Challenger

2026-03-12Hard6-4 7-6(5)

David Goffin

Cap Cana Challenger

2026-03-11Hard6-1 6-4

Jack Draper

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-07Hard3-6 6-3 6-2

Fabian Marozsan

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-05Hard6-4 6-7(2) 6-4

Cameron Norrie

ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam

2026-02-09I.Hard7-6(3) 6-1

Martin Damm

Open Occitanie - Montpellier

2026-02-04I.Hard6-1 6-3

Christopher O'Connell

Open Occitanie - Montpellier

2026-02-02I.Hard5-7 6-3 7-5

Juncheng Shang

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-19Hard6-4 6-7(2) 6-4 6-0

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-13Hard6-3 7-6(2)

Jacob Fearnley

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-26Hard7-5 6-2 5-7 6-4

Marton Fucsovics

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem

2025-08-20Hard6-4 6-3

Christopher O'Connell

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem

2025-08-19Hard6-4 ret.

Ben Shelton

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-13Hard7-6(3) 6-3

Cameron Norrie

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-10Hard6-4 6-3

Daniel Altmaier

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-08Hard7-6(5) 7-6(1)

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Generali Open - Kitzbuhel

2025-07-23Clay7-5 7-5

Cameron Norrie

Wimbledon - London

2025-06-30Grass6-3 3-6 6-4 7-6(3)

Alex Michelsen

Mallorca Championships - Mallorca

2025-06-26Grass6-4 7-6(4)

Bernard Tomic

Mallorca Championships - Mallorca

2025-06-25Grass6-3 6-3

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Mallorca Championships - Mallorca

2025-06-24Grass5-7 6-3 6-2

Carlos Alcaraz

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-21Grass6-4 6-4

Holger Rune

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-20Grass7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-2

Jakub Mensik

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-18Grass3-6 6-3 7-5

Nuno Borges

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-16Grass6-7(6) 7-5 6-4

Hubert Hurkacz

Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch

2025-06-11Grass7-6(2) 6-4

Holger Rune

French Open - Paris

2025-05-26Clay6-7(4) 6-4 6-3 6-2

Flavio Cobolli

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2025-05-22Clay7-6(4) 6-0

Frances Tiafoe

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2025-05-21Clay6-2 6-3

Marcos Giron

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2025-05-19Clay7-6(5) 6-0

Tommy Paul

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2025-05-10Clay6-1 6-4

Matteo Arnaldi

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2025-05-08Clay6-4 6-3

Alexander Zverev

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2025-04-25Clay6-2 6-2

Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2025-04-23Clay6-4 2-6 6-3

Botic Van De Zandschulp

BMW Open - Munich

2025-04-15Clay6-4 3-6 6-4

Casper Ruud

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2025-04-09Clay6-2 6-1

Simulate a match with BautistaGet win probability, VOPO edge vs Pinnacle odds, and Glicko-2 breakdown.

Open Simulator →