What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Sebastian Baez

ATP1d inactive

Glicko-21.927

#101 overall·RD 68

Elo1.891#134 overall

Recent Form

40% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.978#74

Elo1.746#170

Clay

Glicko-21.913#136

Elo1.732#177

Grass

Glicko-21.280#3360

Elo1.407#2962

Recent Matches

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Prostejov Challenger

2026-06-02Clay6-4 6-3

Roman Andres Burruchaga

French Open - Paris

2026-05-26Clay2-6 7-5 6-2 2-0 ret.

Alex Michelsen

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2026-05-18Clay7-5 6-3

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-14Clay5-7 7-5 7-5

Roberto Carballes Baena

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-12Clay6-4 6-2

Alexander Bublik

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-08Clay6-1 6-2

Jenson Brooksby

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-06Clay6-3 7-6(8)

Vilius Gaubas

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-23Clay7-5 6-1

Tomas Machac

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-14Clay2-6 6-4 6-1

Carlos Alcaraz

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-07Clay6-1 6-3

Stan Wawrinka

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-06Clay7-5 7-5

Titouan Droguet

Tiriac Open - Bucharest

2026-04-03Clay6-4 6-4

Vilius Gaubas

Tiriac Open - Bucharest

2026-03-31Clay6-3 6-1

Adam Walton

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard6-2 6-2

Daniil Medvedev

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-09Hard6-4 6-0

Jiri Lehecka

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-07Hard6-4 6-1

Chun Hsin Tseng

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-05Hard6-3 6-2

Luciano Darderi

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-28Clay6-4 6-3

Alejandro Tabilo

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-27Clay7-6(2) 6-1

Cristian Garin

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-26Clay7-6(2) 1-6 7-5

Jaime Faria

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-17Clay7-5 6-1

Luciano Darderi

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-14Clay7-6(2) 6-1

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-13Clay7-6(5) 6-2

Ignacio Buse

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-12Clay6-4 6-3

Luciano Darderi

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-22Hard6-3 1-6 6-4 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-20Hard6-4 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3

Jakub Mensik

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-17Hard6-3 7-6(7)

Ben Shelton

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-16Hard7-5 6-3

Marcos Giron

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-16Hard6-1 6-4

Jenson Brooksby

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-14Hard7-5 6-0

Emilio Nava

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-12Hard4-6 7-5 6-3

Stan Wawrinka

United Cup - Australia

2026-01-07Hard7-5 6-4

Taylor Fritz

United Cup - Australia

2026-01-03Hard4-6 7-5 6-4

Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

United Cup - Australia

2026-01-02Hard6-4 6-4

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Montevideo Challenger

2025-11-11Clay7-6(3) 6-4

Cameron Norrie

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-27I.Hard6-3 6-4

Reilly Opelka

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-21I.Hard6-3 6-4

Valentin Royer

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-14I.Hard6-2 6-3

Holger Rune

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-03Hard7-5 6-4

Zhizhen Zhang

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-01Hard2-6 6-3 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-25Hard6-4 6-2

Lloyd Harris

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-25Hard6-3 7-5 6-4

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem

2025-08-20Hard0-6 6-1 6-4

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem

2025-08-19Hard7-5 6-2

Gabriel Diallo

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-09Hard7-5 6-4

David Goffin

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-07Hard6-1 6-3

Yannick Hanfmann

Generali Open - Kitzbuhel

2025-07-23Clay5-7 6-3 7-5

Luciano Darderi

Nordea Open - Bastad

2025-07-18Clay6-0 6-2

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Nordea Open - Bastad

2025-07-16Clay3-6 6-2 7-5

Jack Draper

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-01Grass6-2 6-2 2-1 ret.

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