What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Reilly Opelka

ATP10d inactive

Glicko-21.915

#119 overall·RD 80

Elo1.917#101 overall

Recent Form

20% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.981#68

Elo1.859#49

Clay

Glicko-21.578#1087

Elo1.551#937

Grass

Glicko-21.637#78

Elo1.528#139

Recent Matches

Federico Cina

French Open - Paris

2026-05-24Clay3-6 6-4 6-2 6-7(6) 6-4

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-23Clay5-3 ret.

Ethan Quinn

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-13Clay7-5 7-6(7)

Taylor Fritz

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-22Hard6-3 6-4

Jack Draper

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard7-6(3) 7-6(0)

Nuno Borges

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-19Hard6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(5)

Ben Shelton

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-06Hard6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3

Ethan Quinn

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-04Hard7-5 7-6(3)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-21Hard6-3 7-6(3) 5-7 4-6 6-4

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-19Hard6-4 6-3 6-4

Tommy Paul

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-14Hard6-4 6-4

Alexei Popyrin

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-12Hard6-3 7-6(6)

Kamil Majchrzak

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-07Hard6-7(2) 7-6(7) 7-6(8)

Dane Sweeny

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-05Hard6-3 7-5

Vit Kopriva

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-03I.Hard6-4 6-3

Corentin Moutet

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-28I.Hard3-6 7-5 6-1

Mattia Bellucci

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-25I.Hard6-3 6-4

Ugo Humbert

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-24I.Hard7-6(0) 6-4

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-23I.Hard7-6(5) 6-7(7) 6-3

Sebastian Baez

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-21I.Hard6-3 6-4

Mika Brunold

Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel

2025-10-18I.Hard6-7(6) 7-6(9) 7-5

Benjamin Bonzi

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-13I.Hard6-4 6-4

Benjamin Bonzi

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-02Hard7-6(2) 6-4

Casper Ruud

Laver Cup - San Francisco

2025-09-19I.Hard6-4 7-6(4)

Carlos Alcaraz

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-25Hard6-4 7-5 6-4

Francisco Comesana

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-12Hard6-7(4) 6-4 7-5

Alex De Minaur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-10Hard7-6(6) 6-4

Hugo Dellien

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-08Hard7-5 7-6(3)

Learner Tien

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-31Hard7-6(3) 6-3

Tomas Machac

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-29Hard7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-3

Sebastian Ofner

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-27Hard7-6(6) 7-5

Daniil Medvedev

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-23Hard3-6 7-5 6-1

Murphy Cassone

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-21Hard7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3

Brandon Nakashima

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-03Grass7-5 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3

Alexander Shevchenko

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-01Grass6-3 7-5 7-6(4)

Jakub Mensik

Rothesay International - Eastbourne

2025-06-25Grass7-5 6-3

George Loffhagen

Rothesay International - Eastbourne

2025-06-24Grass7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(1)

Arthur Rinderknech

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-19Grass7-5 7-6(3)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-17Grass7-6(6) 6-4

Zizou Bergs