What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Pablo Carreno-Busta

MEN42Rising

Age35

BirthplaceGijon, Spain

Height1.88m

Weight78kg

Best HandRight

BackhandTwo-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:50%

Fatigue:42/100

Inactive:1 Days

Overall

Glicko-22.013

#45RD 68

Elo2.051

#37

Hard

Glicko-21.956

#100

Elo1.809

#85

Clay

Glicko-22.092

#32

Elo1.860

#54

Grass

Glicko-21.507

#224

Elo1.459

#2903

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20262-56-51-1

20255-83-6—

20249-70-10-1

20231-3——

202224-1311-92-3

202119-1217-42-2

Recent Matches

Luca Van AsscheMillennium Estoril Open - Estoril2026-07-23Clay6-3 4-6 6-2

Vilius GaubasMillennium Estoril Open - Estoril2026-07-21Clay6-1 6-3

Camilo Ugo CarabelliPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-15Clay3-6 7-5 7-5

Matej DodigPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-14Clay6-4 6-2

Rafael JodarWimbledon - London2026-07-02Grass3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4

Denis ShapovalovWimbledon - London2026-06-29Grass6-3 7-6(7) ret.

Rafael JodarFrench Open - Paris2026-05-31Clay4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2

Thiago Agustin TiranteFrench Open - Paris2026-05-29Clay7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4

Thanasi KokkinakisFrench Open - Paris2026-05-27Clay7-5 4-6 1-0 ret.

Jiri LeheckaFrench Open - Paris2026-05-25Clay6-3 7-6(3) 6-3

Sebastian BaezValencia Challenger2026-05-14Clay5-7 7-5 7-5

Francisco ComesanaValencia Challenger2026-05-12Clay6-4 6-3

Alejandro TabiloInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-06Clay6-2 6-1

Martin DammInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-04Clay6-3 6-3

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-25Clay6-3 6-3

Marton FucsovicsMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-23Clay4-6 7-6(5) 6-2

Pedro Martinez PorteroBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-11Clay6-3 4-3 ret.

Pablo Llamas RuizAlicante Challenger2026-03-29Clay6-4 6-2

Sebastian OfnerAlicante Challenger2026-03-28Clay3-6 6-3 6-4

Pedro Martinez PorteroAlicante Challenger2026-03-27Clay6-4 4-6 6-4

Alejo Sanchez QuilezAlicante Challenger2026-03-26Clay3-6 7-5 6-3

Svyatoslav GulinAlicante Challenger2026-03-24Clay7-5 6-1

Roberto Carballes BaenaMurcia Challenger2026-03-22Clay6-4 6-3

Kimmer CoppejansMurcia Challenger2026-03-21Clay6-2 6-3

Andrea PellegrinoMurcia Challenger2026-03-20Clay6-3 6-4

Felix GillMurcia Challenger2026-03-19Clay4-6 6-3 6-2

Carlos Sanchez JoverMurcia Challenger2026-03-17Clay7-6(3) 6-1

Jiri LeheckaDubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai2026-02-25Hard7-6(6) 6-4

Denis ShapovalovDubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai2026-02-24Hard6-2 6-4

Luca NardiDubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai2026-02-22Hard6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)

Botic Van De ZandschulpDubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai2026-02-21Hard6-3 6-2

Quentin HalysQatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha2026-02-17Hard4-6 7-5 6-3

Billy HarrisQatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha2026-02-15Hard7-5 6-3

Reda BennaniQatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha2026-02-14Hard6-4 6-2

Roberto Carballes BaenaABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam2026-02-07I.Hard6-4 3-6 6-1

Tallon GriekspoorOpen Occitanie - Montpellier2026-02-05I.Hard6-4 6-4

Miomir KecmanovicOpen Occitanie - Montpellier2026-02-03I.Hard4-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Jakub MensikAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-20Hard7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3

Vit KoprivaASB Classic - Auckland2026-01-10Hard6-3 1-6 6-4

Grigor DimitrovBrisbane International - Brisbane2026-01-06Hard6-3 6-2

Arthur CazauxBrisbane International - Brisbane2026-01-04Hard5-3 ret.

Mattia BellucciBrisbane International - Brisbane2026-01-03Hard6-4 2-6 7-6(3)

Matteo BerrettiniDavis Cup, World Group, F, ITA-ESP 2-02025-11-23I.Hard6-3 6-4

Jan-Lennard StruffDavis Cup, World Group, SF, ESP-GER 2-12025-11-22I.Hard6-4 7-6(6)

Jakub MensikDavis Cup, World Group, QF, ESP-CZE 2-12025-11-20I.Hard7-5 6-4

Luca Van AsscheOlbia Challenger2025-10-19Hard7-6(5) 6-7(1) 6-2

Martin LandaluceOlbia Challenger2025-10-18Hard6-2 3-6 6-3

Alejandro TabiloOlbia Challenger2025-10-17Hard6-3 1-6 7-6(3)

Pierluigi BasileOlbia Challenger2025-10-16Hard6-2 6-7(5) 6-3

Luka PavlovicOlbia Challenger2025-10-16Hard3-6 6-1 6-2

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