What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Pablo Carreno-Busta

ATP3d inactive65 Moderate Fatigue

Glicko-22.028

#38 overall·RD 64

Elo2.084#28 overall

Recent Form

80% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.956#94

Elo1.809#83

Clay

Glicko-22.133#19

Elo1.878#34

Grass

Glicko-21.500#200

Elo1.448#2919

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar

French Open - Paris

2026-05-31Clay4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2

Thiago Agustin Tirante

French Open - Paris

2026-05-29Clay7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4

Thanasi Kokkinakis

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay7-5 4-6 1-0 ret.

Jiri Lehecka

French Open - Paris

2026-05-25Clay6-3 7-6(3) 6-3

Sebastian Baez

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-14Clay5-7 7-5 7-5

Francisco Comesana

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-12Clay6-4 6-3

Alejandro Tabilo

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-06Clay6-2 6-1

Martin Damm

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-04Clay6-3 6-3

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-25Clay6-3 6-3

Marton Fucsovics

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-23Clay4-6 7-6(5) 6-2

Pedro Martinez Portero

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-11Clay6-3 4-3 ret.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Alicante Challenger

2026-03-29Clay6-4 6-2

Sebastian Ofner

Alicante Challenger

2026-03-28Clay3-6 6-3 6-4

Pedro Martinez Portero

Alicante Challenger

2026-03-27Clay6-4 4-6 6-4

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Alicante Challenger

2026-03-26Clay3-6 7-5 6-3

Svyatoslav Gulin

Alicante Challenger

2026-03-24Clay7-5 6-1

Roberto Carballes Baena

Murcia Challenger

2026-03-22Clay6-4 6-3

Kimmer Coppejans

Murcia Challenger

2026-03-21Clay6-2 6-3

Andrea Pellegrino

Murcia Challenger

2026-03-20Clay6-3 6-4

Felix Gill

Murcia Challenger

2026-03-19Clay4-6 6-3 6-2

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Murcia Challenger

2026-03-17Clay7-6(3) 6-1

Jiri Lehecka

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai

2026-02-25Hard7-6(6) 6-4

Denis Shapovalov

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai

2026-02-24Hard6-2 6-4

Luca Nardi

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai

2026-02-22Hard6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai

2026-02-21Hard6-3 6-2

Quentin Halys

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

2026-02-17Hard4-6 7-5 6-3

Billy Harris

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

2026-02-15Hard7-5 6-3

Reda Bennani

Qatar ExxonMobil Open - Doha

2026-02-14Hard6-4 6-2

Roberto Carballes Baena

ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam

2026-02-07I.Hard6-4 3-6 6-1

Tallon Griekspoor

Open Occitanie - Montpellier

2026-02-05I.Hard6-4 6-4

Miomir Kecmanovic

Open Occitanie - Montpellier

2026-02-03I.Hard4-6 6-3 7-6(4)

Jakub Mensik

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-20Hard7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3

Vit Kopriva

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-10Hard6-3 1-6 6-4

Grigor Dimitrov

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-06Hard6-3 6-2

Arthur Cazaux

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-04Hard5-3 ret.

Mattia Bellucci

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-03Hard6-4 2-6 7-6(3)

Matteo Berrettini

Davis Cup, World Group, F, ITA-ESP 2-0

2025-11-23I.Hard6-3 6-4

Jan-Lennard Struff

Davis Cup, World Group, SF, ESP-GER 2-1

2025-11-22I.Hard6-4 7-6(6)

Jakub Mensik

Davis Cup, World Group, QF, ESP-CZE 2-1

2025-11-20I.Hard7-5 6-4

Luca Van Assche

Olbia Challenger

2025-10-19Hard7-6(5) 6-7(1) 6-2

Martin Landaluce

Olbia Challenger

2025-10-18Hard6-2 3-6 6-3

Alejandro Tabilo

Olbia Challenger

2025-10-17Hard6-3 1-6 7-6(3)

Pierluigi Basile

Olbia Challenger

2025-10-16Hard6-2 6-7(5) 6-3

Luka Pavlovic

Olbia Challenger

2025-10-16Hard3-6 6-1 6-2

Milos Karol

Roanne Challenger

2025-10-08I.Hard6-7(8) 7-5 7-6(7)

Hugo Grenier

Villena Challenger

2025-10-05Hard4-6 6-1 6-4

Petr Brunclik

Villena Challenger

2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-3

Martin Landaluce

Villena Challenger

2025-10-03Hard6-3 6-1

Eliakim Coulibaly

Villena Challenger

2025-10-02Hard6-4 6-3

Dali Blanch

Villena Challenger

2025-09-30Hard6-2 4-6 6-3

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