What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Matteo Arnaldi

MENHot

Age25

BirthplaceSanremo, Italy

Height1.85m

Weight71kg

Best HandRight

BackhandTwo-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:63%

Fatigue:20/100

Inactive:8 Days

Overall

Glicko-21.984

#61RD 70

Elo1.959

#84

Hard

Glicko-21.871

#232

Elo1.640

#492

Clay

Glicko-22.106

#26

Elo1.914

#22

Grass

Glicko-21.484

#3008

Elo1.426

#2962

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20260-38-40-2

202512-167-60-2

202419-159-81-2

202311-89-60-1

20220-30-1—

Recent Matches

Damir DzumhurPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-16Clay7-6(5) 6-7(4) 7-6(4)

Federico Agustin GomezPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-15Clay6-3 5-7 6-3

Quentin HalysWimbledon - London2026-06-30Grass3-6 6-1 7-6(5) 6-3

Giles HusseyLexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne2026-06-23Grass6-4 6-2

Toby SamuelLexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne2026-06-21Grass3-6 6-4 6-4

Alastair GrayLexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne2026-06-20Grass7-6(3) 7-6(4)

Matteo BerrettiniFrench Open - Paris2026-06-03Clay7-5 5-2 ret.

Frances TiafoeFrench Open - Paris2026-06-01Clay7-6(5) 6-7(5) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4

Raphael CollignonFrench Open - Paris2026-05-30Clay6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

Stefanos TsitsipasFrench Open - Paris2026-05-28Clay7-6(2) 5-7 6-3 6-2

Tallon GriekspoorFrench Open - Paris2026-05-26Clay6-7(9) 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3

Rafael JodarInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-10Clay6-1 4-6 6-3

Alex De MinaurInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-08Clay4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Jaume Antoni Munar ClarInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-06Clay6-3 3-6 6-3

Hubert HurkaczCagliari Challenger2026-05-03Clay6-4 6-4

Gianluca CadenassoCagliari Challenger2026-05-02Clay1-6 6-1 6-0

Nuno BorgesCagliari Challenger2026-05-01Clay6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(3)

Juan Manuel CerundoloCagliari Challenger2026-04-30Clay6-2 6-3

Federico ArnaboldiCagliari Challenger2026-04-29Clay6-7(3) 6-4 6-2

Dusan LajovicMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-20Clay6-0 3-6 6-4

Quentin HalysBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-11Clay6-1 6-7(1) 7-6(2)

Cristian GarinMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-06Clay6-2 6-4

Alexandre MullerMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-05Clay6-1 6-7(4) 6-4

Vit KoprivaMonte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo2026-04-04Clay2-6 6-3 6-2

Alex MolcanTiriac Open - Bucharest2026-03-31Clay6-3 6-1

Alexander ShevchenkoMiami Open - Miami2026-03-20Hard7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-2

Mackenzie McdonaldBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-05Hard6-0 6-1

Andrey RublevAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-19Hard6-4 6-2 6-3

Hugo GastonBrisbane International - Brisbane2026-01-03Hard6-1 5-7 7-6(5)

Jacob FearnleyRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-25I.Hard7-5 6-2

Alexander ZverevErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-23I.Hard6-4 6-4

Aleksandar KovacevicErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-20I.Hard7-5 6-4

Tristan SchoolkateErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-19I.Hard7-6(5) 6-3

Jesper De JongErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-18I.Hard6-4 7-6(5)

Yannick HanfmannEuropean Open - Brussels2025-10-15I.Hard6-7(4) 6-4 6-4

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-4

Rei SakamotoShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-02Hard7-6(3) 6-4

Marton FucsovicsJapan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo2025-09-23Hard7-5 6-2

Luca NardiJapan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo2025-09-22Hard6-0 6-7(4) 6-3

Arthur CazauxHangzhou Open - Hangzhou2025-09-19Hard6-4 3-6 7-5

Francisco CerundoloU.S. Open - New York2025-08-26Hard3-6 2-6 7-5 6-4 6-3

Botic Van De ZandschulpWinston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem2025-08-19Hard6-3 6-3

Benjamin BonziCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-07Hard6-7(1) 6-3 6-4

Alexander ZverevNational Bank Open - Toronto2025-07-31Hard6-7(5) 6-3 6-2

Tristan SchoolkateNational Bank Open - Toronto2025-07-29Hard6-3 3-6 6-3

Taylor FritzCiti Open - Washington2025-07-24Hard6-3 6-4

Lorenzo SonegoCiti Open - Washington2025-07-23Hard7-5 7-5

Daniel AltmaierCiti Open - Washington2025-07-21Hard4-6 6-2 7-6(2)

Botic Van De ZandschulpWimbledon - London2025-07-01Grass7-6(4) 7-6(5) 6-4

Jan-Lennard StruffBoss Open - Stuttgart2025-06-09Grass6-4 6-4

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