What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Matteo Arnaldi

ATP2d inactive100 High Fatigue

Glicko-22.000

#50 overall·RD 70

Elo1.990#58 overall

Recent Form

80% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.871#225

Elo1.640#490

Clay

Glicko-22.130#20

Elo1.896#28

Grass

Glicko-21.345#3327

Elo1.420#2953

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe

French Open - Paris

2026-06-01Clay7-6(5) 6-7(5) 3-6 7-6(3) 6-4

Raphael Collignon

French Open - Paris

2026-05-30Clay6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

Stefanos Tsitsipas

French Open - Paris

2026-05-28Clay7-6(2) 5-7 6-3 6-2

Tallon Griekspoor

French Open - Paris

2026-05-26Clay6-7(9) 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3

Rafael Jodar

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-10Clay6-1 4-6 6-3

Alex De Minaur

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-08Clay4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-06Clay6-3 3-6 6-3

Hubert Hurkacz

Cagliari Challenger

2026-05-03Clay6-4 6-4

Gianluca Cadenasso

Cagliari Challenger

2026-05-02Clay1-6 6-1 6-0

Nuno Borges

Cagliari Challenger

2026-05-01Clay6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(3)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Cagliari Challenger

2026-04-30Clay6-2 6-3

Federico Arnaboldi

Cagliari Challenger

2026-04-29Clay6-7(3) 6-4 6-2

Dusan Lajovic

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-20Clay6-0 3-6 6-4

Quentin Halys

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-11Clay6-1 6-7(1) 7-6(2)

Cristian Garin

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-06Clay6-2 6-4

Alexandre Muller

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-05Clay6-1 6-7(4) 6-4

Vit Kopriva

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-04Clay2-6 6-3 6-2

Alex Molcan

Tiriac Open - Bucharest

2026-03-31Clay6-3 6-1

Alexander Shevchenko

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-2

Mackenzie Mcdonald

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-05Hard6-0 6-1

Andrey Rublev

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-19Hard6-4 6-2 6-3

Hugo Gaston

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-03Hard6-1 5-7 7-6(5)

Jacob Fearnley

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-25I.Hard7-5 6-2

Alexander Zverev

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-23I.Hard6-4 6-4

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-20I.Hard7-5 6-4

Tristan Schoolkate

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-19I.Hard7-6(5) 6-3

Jesper De Jong

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-18I.Hard6-4 7-6(5)

Yannick Hanfmann

European Open - Brussels

2025-10-15I.Hard6-7(4) 6-4 6-4

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-4

Rei Sakamoto

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-02Hard7-6(3) 6-4

Marton Fucsovics

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-23Hard7-5 6-2

Luca Nardi

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-22Hard6-0 6-7(4) 6-3

Arthur Cazaux

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou

2025-09-19Hard6-4 3-6 7-5

Francisco Cerundolo

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-26Hard3-6 2-6 7-5 6-4 6-3

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem

2025-08-19Hard6-3 6-3

Benjamin Bonzi

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-07Hard6-7(1) 6-3 6-4

Alexander Zverev

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-31Hard6-7(5) 6-3 6-2

Tristan Schoolkate

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-29Hard6-3 3-6 6-3

Taylor Fritz

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-24Hard6-3 6-4

Lorenzo Sonego

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-23Hard7-5 7-5

Daniel Altmaier

Citi Open - Washington

2025-07-21Hard4-6 6-2 7-6(2)

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Wimbledon - London

2025-07-01Grass7-6(4) 7-6(5) 6-4

Jan-Lennard Struff

Boss Open - Stuttgart

2025-06-09Grass6-4 6-4

Flavio Cobolli

French Open - Paris

2025-05-29Clay6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1

Felix Auger Aliassime

French Open - Paris

2025-05-27Clay5-7 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-2

Novak Djokovic

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2025-05-22Clay6-4 6-4

Fabian Marozsan

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2025-05-21Clay6-3 7-6(3)

Hugo Gaston

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2025-05-19Clay6-7(6) 6-4 6-4

Roberto Bautista Agut

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2025-05-08Clay6-4 6-3

Jack Draper

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2025-05-01Clay6-0 6-4

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