What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Jacob Fearnley

ATP1d inactive

Glicko-21.839

#247 overall·RD 75

Elo1.807#259 overall

Recent Form

20% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.840#298

Elo1.719#220

Clay

Glicko-21.826#271

Elo1.699#262

Grass

Glicko-21.535#162

Elo1.529#135

Recent Matches

Rinky Hijikata

Birmingham Challenger

2026-06-02Grass6-1 7-6(3)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

French Open - Paris

2026-05-26Clay6-2 7-6(0) 7-6(7)

Titouan Droguet

Bordeaux Challenger

2026-05-12Clay6-2 6-7(2) 6-2

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-07Clay7-6(6) 4-6 6-2

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-05Clay2-6 6-2 6-3

Shintaro Mochizuki

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-04Clay6-3 6-1

Martin Damm

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-19Hard6-0 ret.

Arthur Cazaux

Phoenix Challenger

2026-03-11Hard6-2 3-6 6-1

Taylor Fritz

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-07Hard6-3 6-7(8) 6-1

Damir Dzumhur

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-05Hard6-3 6-3

Arthur Bouquier

St. Brieuc Challenger

2026-02-23I.Hard6-3 6-2

Clement Chidekh

Lille Challenger

2026-02-17I.Hard6-3 2-6 6-2

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Davis Cup, World Group, Q, NOR-GBR 0-4

2026-02-06I.Hard3-6 6-3 10-7

Kyrian Jacquet

Manama Challenger

2026-01-30Hard7-6(4) 1-6 6-3

Lukas Pokorny

Manama Challenger

2026-01-29Hard3-6 6-4 6-1

Lukas Neumayer

Manama Challenger

2026-01-27Hard6-3 7-6(4)

Kamil Majchrzak

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-19Hard7-6(2) 7-5 3-6 7-6(3)

Quentin Halys

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-13Hard6-3 6-4

Aleksandar Vukic

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-12Hard6-4 6-7(7) 6-3

Christopher O'Connell

Adelaide International - Adelaide

2026-01-11Hard7-6(4) 7-6(4)

Dane Sweeny

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-03Hard6-1 7-6(4)

Damir Dzumhur

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-03I.Hard6-4 6-2

Andrey Rublev

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-27I.Hard6-1 6-4

Yannick Hanfmann

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-26I.Hard6-4 6-2

Matteo Arnaldi

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-25I.Hard7-5 6-2

Alexander Zverev

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-21I.Hard6-4 1-6 7-6(5)

Hamad Medjedovic

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-19I.Hard7-6(11) 6-3

Dalibor Svrcina

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-18I.Hard6-4 7-5

Elias Ymer

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm

2025-10-16I.Hard6-2 6-2

Tallon Griekspoor

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm

2025-10-13I.Hard6-3 6-7(6) 7-6(5)

Dominic Stricker

Roanne Challenger

2025-10-08I.Hard6-4 6-4

Luca Van Assche

Roanne Challenger

2025-10-07I.Hard3-6 6-2 6-3

Alexander Zverev

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-28Hard6-4 6-4 6-4

Roberto Bautista Agut

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-26Hard7-5 6-2 5-7 6-4

Hamad Medjedovic

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem

2025-08-19Hard6-4 7-6(2)

James McCabe

Sumter Challenger

2025-08-13Hard3-6 7-5 ret.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Sumter Challenger

2025-08-12Hard6-2 6-0

Zizou Bergs

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-07Hard6-1 6-4

Juan Pablo Ficovich

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-27Hard6-2 6-3

Joao Fonseca

Wimbledon - London

2025-06-30Grass6-4 6-1 7-6(5)

Marcos Giron

Rothesay International - Eastbourne

2025-06-25Grass6-3 6-1

Flavio Cobolli

Rothesay International - Eastbourne

2025-06-24Grass6-2 6-2

Jiri Lehecka

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-20Grass7-5 6-2

Corentin Moutet

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-19Grass6-3 2-6 6-2

Alex Bolt

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-16Grass6-2 6-4

Brandon Nakashima

Boss Open - Stuttgart

2025-06-09Grass4-6 7-6(4) 6-1

Cameron Norrie

French Open - Paris

2025-05-31Clay6-3 7-6(1) 6-2

Ugo Humbert

French Open - Paris

2025-05-29Clay6-3 4-4 ret.

Stan Wawrinka

French Open - Paris

2025-05-26Clay7-6(6) 6-3 6-2

Alexei Popyrin

Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva

2025-05-21Clay6-4 6-3

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