What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Holger Rune

ATP228d inactive

Glicko-22.036

#33 overall·RD 64

Elo2.047#36 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-22.054#30

Elo1.938#22

Clay

Glicko-22.059#45

Elo1.921#21

Grass

Glicko-21.672#59

Elo1.625#34

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm

2025-10-18I.Hard4-6 2-2 ret.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm

2025-10-17I.Hard6-7(4) 6-3 6-4

Marton Fucsovics

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm

2025-10-16I.Hard6-4 6-4

Valentin Vacherot

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-09Hard2-6 7-6(4) 6-4

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-07Hard6-4 6-7(7) 6-3

Ugo Humbert

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-05Hard6-4 6-4

Sebastian Baez

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-03Hard7-5 6-4

Jenson Brooksby

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-28Hard6-3 6-3

Ethan Quinn

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-27Hard6-4 6-2

Hamad Medjedovic

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

2025-09-25Hard7-6(7) 6-1

Francisco Cerundolo

Laver Cup - San Francisco

2025-09-20I.Hard6-3 7-6(5)

Pedro Martinez Portero

Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, ESP-DEN 3-2

2025-09-14Clay6-1 4-6 7-6(3)

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, ESP-DEN 3-2

2025-09-13Clay7-5 6-3

Jan-Lennard Struff

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-27Hard7-6(5) 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5

Botic Van De Zandschulp

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-25Hard6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(2)

Terence Atmane

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-14Hard6-2 6-3

Frances Tiafoe

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-13Hard6-4 3-1 ret.

Alex Michelsen

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-11Hard7-6(4) 6-3

Roman Safiullin

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-09Hard7-5 7-6(5)

Alexei Popyrin

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-08-02Hard4-6 6-2 6-3

Alexandre Muller

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-31Hard6-2 6-4

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-29Hard7-6(7) 6-3

Nicolas Jarry

Wimbledon - London

2025-06-30Grass4-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4

Roberto Bautista Agut

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-20Grass7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-2

Mackenzie Mcdonald

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-18Grass2-6 6-1 6-1

Christopher O'Connell

cinch Championships - London

2025-06-16Grass6-3 6-4

Lorenzo Musetti

French Open - Paris

2025-06-01Clay7-5 3-6 6-3 6-2

Quentin Halys

French Open - Paris

2025-05-30Clay4-6 6-2 5-7 7-5 6-2

Emilio Nava

French Open - Paris

2025-05-28Clay6-3 7-6(5) 6-3

Roberto Bautista Agut

French Open - Paris

2025-05-26Clay6-7(4) 6-4 6-3 6-2

Corentin Moutet

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2025-05-11Clay7-5 5-7 7-6(4)

Francisco Comesana

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2025-05-09Clay3-6 6-3 6-4

Flavio Cobolli

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2025-04-25Clay6-2 ret.

Carlos Alcaraz

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2025-04-20Clay7-6(6) 6-2

Karen Khachanov

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2025-04-19Clay6-3 6-2

Casper Ruud

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2025-04-18Clay6-4 6-2

Sebastian Baez

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2025-04-16Clay4-6 6-1 6-2

Albert Ramos-Vinolas

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2025-04-14Clay7-5 6-4

Nuno Borges

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2025-04-08Clay6-2 3-0 ret.

Reilly Opelka

Miami Open - Miami

2025-03-22Hard4-6 6-3 7-6(5)

Jack Draper