What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP7d inactive

Glicko-21.961

#74 overall·RD 64

Elo1.960#74 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.831#315

Elo1.657#419

Clay

Glicko-22.052#48

Elo1.843#55

Grass

Glicko-21.293#3355

Elo1.397#2972

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev

French Open - Paris

2026-05-27Clay6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)

Emilio Nava

French Open - Paris

2026-05-25Clay7-6(10) 6-3 6-3

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-21Clay6-4 6-7(10) 6-2

Frances Tiafoe

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-20Clay7-6(3) 7-6(4)

Kamil Majchrzak

Hamburg Open - Hamburg

2026-05-18Clay1-6 6-2 6-3

Miomir Kecmanovic

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-15Clay6-1 6-1

Matteo Berrettini

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-14Clay7-6(2) 6-4

Alexander Shevchenko

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-06Clay6-3 4-6 7-6(5)

Flavio Cobolli

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-25Clay6-7(7) 6-1 6-4

Gael Monfils

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-23Clay6-3 6-4

Rafael Jodar

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-15Clay6-3 6-3

Karen Khachanov

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona

2026-04-14Clay6-3 6-4

Rafael Jodar

Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech

2026-04-04Clay6-2 6-1

Luca Van Assche

Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech

2026-04-03Clay0-6 6-3 6-2

Ignacio Buse

Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech

2026-04-02Clay6-3 3-6 7-5

Timofey Skatov

Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech

2026-03-31Clay6-7(2) 6-3 6-4

Sebastian Korda

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-20Hard6-0 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-19Hard2-6 6-3 7-6(3)

Brandon Nakashima

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-06Hard6-3 6-4

Martin Damm

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-04Hard7-6(5) 6-3

Yannick Hanfmann

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-25Clay6-4 6-3

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-17Clay6-3 6-4

Sebastian Baez

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-13Clay7-6(5) 6-2

Mariano Navone

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-12Clay6-2 7-5

Francisco Comesana

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-10Clay6-4 7-6(3)

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rosario Challenger

2026-02-08Clay6-2 6-3

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rosario Challenger

2026-02-07Clay7-5 6-1

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rosario Challenger

2026-02-06Clay5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

Hugo Dellien

Rosario Challenger

2026-02-06Clay6-4 6-2

Guido Ivan Justo

Rosario Challenger

2026-02-03Clay6-1 6-0

Marton Fucsovics

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-18Hard7-6(5) 6-1 6-2

Alejandro Tabilo

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-13Hard6-4 6-2

Learner Tien

Brisbane International - Brisbane

2026-01-04Hard7-6(4) 6-3

Alexander Zverev

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-29I.Hard6-7(5) 6-1 7-5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

2025-10-28I.Hard7-5 6-3

Filip Misolic

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-21I.Hard7-5 7-6(6)

Aleksandar Kovacevic

BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm

2025-10-15I.Hard4-6 7-5 4-0 ret.

Alex De Minaur

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-2

Terence Atmane

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai

2025-10-02Hard4-4 ret.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

China Open - Beijing

2025-09-25Hard6-1 6-3

Rinky Hijikata

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou

2025-09-19Hard7-6(2) 6-4

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

U.S. Open - New York

2025-08-24Hard6-3 6-2 6-0

Ben Shelton

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-10Hard6-3 3-1 ret.

Kei Nishikori

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati

2025-08-08Hard7-5 6-3

Roberto Carballes Baena

National Bank Open - Toronto

2025-07-28Hard6-4 4-1 ret.

Luciano Darderi

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag

2025-07-25Clay7-6(6) 6-3

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag

2025-07-24Clay6-4 5-2 ret.

Francesco Passaro

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag

2025-07-22Clay6-7(5) 6-2 6-3

Jesper De Jong

Nordea Open - Bastad

2025-07-19Clay6-3 7-6(3)

Filip Misolic

Nordea Open - Bastad

2025-07-18Clay6-3 7-5

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