What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

MEN39Slump

Age27

BirthplaceBuenos Aires, Argentina

Height1.85m

Weight83kg

Best HandRight

BackhandTwo-Handed

Recent Form

Win Rate:38%

Fatigue:39/100

Inactive:4 Days

Overall

Glicko-21.946

#91RD 69

Elo1.930

#102

Hard

Glicko-21.831

#313

Elo1.657

#430

Clay

Glicko-22.039

#55

Elo1.838

#66

Grass

Glicko-21.210

#3294

Elo1.373

#3010

Surface Record

HardClayGrass

20262-512-100-1

20255-1114-110-3

20240-22-4—

2023—1-2—

2022—1-1—

Recent Matches

Titouan DroguetMillennium Estoril Open - Estoril2026-07-20Clay6-0 3-6 6-4

Roman Andres BurruchagaPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-16Clay6-2 2-6 6-3

Pablo Carreno-BustaPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-15Clay3-6 7-5 7-5

Marko TopoPlava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag2026-07-14Clay6-7(2) 7-6(3) 6-3

Daniel Merida AguilarWimbledon - London2026-06-29Grass4-6 3-6 6-2 3-0 ret.

Andrey RublevFrench Open - Paris2026-05-27Clay6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)

Emilio NavaFrench Open - Paris2026-05-25Clay7-6(10) 6-3 6-3

Aleksandar KovacevicHamburg Open - Hamburg2026-05-21Clay6-4 6-7(10) 6-2

Frances TiafoeHamburg Open - Hamburg2026-05-20Clay7-6(3) 7-6(4)

Kamil MajchrzakHamburg Open - Hamburg2026-05-18Clay1-6 6-2 6-3

Miomir KecmanovicValencia Challenger2026-05-15Clay6-1 6-1

Matteo BerrettiniValencia Challenger2026-05-14Clay7-6(2) 6-4

Alexander ShevchenkoInternazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome2026-05-06Clay6-3 4-6 7-6(5)

Flavio CobolliMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-25Clay6-7(7) 6-1 6-4

Gael MonfilsMutua Madrid Open - Madrid2026-04-23Clay6-3 6-4

Rafael JodarBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-15Clay6-3 6-3

Karen KhachanovBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona2026-04-14Clay6-3 6-4

Rafael JodarGrand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech2026-04-04Clay6-2 6-1

Luca Van AsscheGrand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech2026-04-03Clay0-6 6-3 6-2

Ignacio BuseGrand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech2026-04-02Clay6-3 3-6 7-5

Timofey SkatovGrand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech2026-03-31Clay6-7(2) 6-3 6-4

Sebastian KordaMiami Open - Miami2026-03-20Hard6-0 6-3

Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMiami Open - Miami2026-03-19Hard2-6 6-3 7-6(3)

Brandon NakashimaBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-06Hard6-3 6-4

Martin DammBNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells2026-03-04Hard7-6(5) 6-3

Yannick HanfmannBCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago2026-02-25Clay6-4 6-3

Roman Andres BurruchagaRio Open - Rio de Janeiro2026-02-17Clay6-3 6-4

Sebastian BaezArgentina Open - Buenos Aires2026-02-13Clay7-6(5) 6-2

Mariano NavoneArgentina Open - Buenos Aires2026-02-12Clay6-2 7-5

Francisco ComesanaArgentina Open - Buenos Aires2026-02-10Clay6-4 7-6(3)

Roman Andres BurruchagaRosario Challenger2026-02-08Clay6-2 6-3

Juan Manuel CerundoloRosario Challenger2026-02-07Clay7-5 6-1

Facundo Diaz AcostaRosario Challenger2026-02-06Clay5-7 6-4 7-6(4)

Hugo DellienRosario Challenger2026-02-06Clay6-4 6-2

Guido Ivan JustoRosario Challenger2026-02-03Clay6-1 6-0

Marton FucsovicsAustralian Open - Melbourne2026-01-18Hard7-6(5) 6-1 6-2

Alejandro TabiloASB Classic - Auckland2026-01-13Hard6-4 6-2

Learner TienBrisbane International - Brisbane2026-01-04Hard7-6(4) 6-3

Alexander ZverevRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-29I.Hard6-7(5) 6-1 7-5

Tomas Martin EtcheverryRolex Paris Masters - Paris2025-10-28I.Hard7-5 6-3

Filip MisolicErste Bank Open - Vienna2025-10-21I.Hard7-5 7-6(6)

Aleksandar KovacevicBNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm2025-10-15I.Hard4-6 7-5 4-0 ret.

Alex De MinaurShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-04Hard6-4 6-2

Terence AtmaneShanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai2025-10-02Hard4-4 ret.

Alejandro Davidovich FokinaChina Open - Beijing2025-09-25Hard6-1 6-3

Rinky HijikataHangzhou Open - Hangzhou2025-09-19Hard7-6(2) 6-4

Tomas Martin EtcheverryU.S. Open - New York2025-08-24Hard6-3 6-2 6-0

Ben SheltonCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-10Hard6-3 3-1 ret.

Kei NishikoriCincinnati Open - Cincinnati2025-08-08Hard7-5 6-3

Roberto Carballes BaenaNational Bank Open - Toronto2025-07-28Hard6-4 4-1 ret.

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