What is VOPO in tennis betting?

VOPO (Value Over Pinnacle Odds) is the difference between Tennis Glicko's internal win probability (average of Glicko-2 and Elo models) and the implied probability from Pinnacle's odds. A positive VOPO means the market is undervaluing a player.

What is Green EV in tennis betting?

Green EV is Tennis Glicko's high-conviction value signal. It triggers when VOPO exceeds 12% AND the internal win probability is above 50% — indicating the market is significantly mispricing a player.

How accurate is Tennis Glicko?

Tennis Glicko has 72.8% predictive accuracy over the last 30 days, with a Brier Score of 0.1775 — a standard probabilistic calibration metric used in forecasting.

Why use Glicko-2 instead of ATP rankings for tennis predictions?

ATP rankings are a lagging indicator — they ignore surface specialization, injury returns, scheduling fatigue, and form swings. Glicko-2 updates after every match, adjusts for opponent quality, and models rating uncertainty, making it significantly more accurate for predicting match outcomes.

Rankings

Alejandro Tabilo

ATP2d inactive49 Low Fatigue

Glicko-22.045

#32 overall·RD 63

Elo2.068#31 overall

Recent Form

60% Win Rate

Hard

Glicko-21.987#62

Elo1.831#63

Clay

Glicko-22.101#30

Elo1.874#38

Grass

Glicko-21.500#199

Elo1.565#80

Recent Matches

Felix Auger Aliassime

French Open - Paris

2026-06-01Clay6-3 7-5 6-1

Moise Kouame

French Open - Paris

2026-05-30Clay4-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(9)

Kamil Majchrzak

French Open - Paris

2026-05-26Clay6-1 6-3 6-4

Miomir Kecmanovic

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-16Clay7-6(0) 6-3

Dusan Lajovic

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-15Clay4-6 7-5 6-4

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Valencia Challenger

2026-05-14Clay6-3 6-1

Francisco Cerundolo

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-08Clay6-0 6-2

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome

2026-05-06Clay6-2 6-1

Zizou Bergs

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-05-03Clay6-4 4-6 6-3

Ethan Quinn

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-05-02Clay6-3 3-6 7-6(2)

Ignacio Buse

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-05-01Clay6-4 6-0

Roberto Bautista Agut

Aix En Provence Challenger

2026-04-30Clay4-6 6-2 6-4

Jiri Lehecka

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-24Clay3-6 7-6(3) 6-4

Valentin Royer

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

2026-04-22Clay6-2 6-4

Joao Fonseca

BMW Open - Munich

2026-04-14Clay7-6(1) 6-3

Jiri Lehecka

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-08Clay4-6 7-6(4) 6-3

Marton Fucsovics

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo

2026-04-05Clay6-4 6-3

Alex Michelsen

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-23Hard3-6 6-3 6-4

Andrey Rublev

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-21Hard6-7(5) 6-2 6-4

Francisco Comesana

Miami Open - Miami

2026-03-19Hard6-4 6-2

Daniil Medvedev

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-07Hard6-4 6-2

Rafael Jodar

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

2026-03-05Hard6-1 6-2

Sebastian Baez

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-27Clay7-6(2) 6-1

Thiago Agustin Tirante

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-26Clay4-6 6-3 6-3

Tomas Barrios Vera

BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago

2026-02-24Clay7-5 6-3

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-22Clay3-6 7-6(3) 6-4

Ignacio Buse

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-22Clay6-3 6-3

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-20Clay7-6(2) 6-7(6) 6-1

Francesco Passaro

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-18Clay4-6 7-6(0) 6-2

Emilio Nava

Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro

2026-02-16Clay6-3 6-3

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-13Clay1-6 6-3 6-4

Joao Fonseca

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-11Clay6-3 3-6 7-5

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Argentina Open - Buenos Aires

2026-02-10Clay7-6(5) 6-3

Ognjen Milic

Davis Cup, World Group, Q, CHI-SRB 4-0

2026-02-06Clay6-7(3) 6-2 6-4

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Concepcion Challenger

2026-02-01Clay6-2 1-6 6-1

Marco Cecchinato

Concepcion Challenger

2026-01-31Clay6-3 6-1

Lautaro Midon

Concepcion Challenger

2026-01-30Clay5-7 6-1 6-2

Matias Soto

Concepcion Challenger

2026-01-29Clay6-2 6-3

Gonzalo Villanueva

Concepcion Challenger

2026-01-28Clay7-5 6-4

Quentin Halys

Australian Open - Melbourne

2026-01-19Hard6-2 6-2 7-6(2)

Luciano Darderi

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-14Hard1-6 7-5 6-3

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ASB Classic - Auckland

2026-01-13Hard6-4 6-2

Michael Mmoh

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-06Hard7-5 6-4

Yi Zhou

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-05Hard4-6 6-4 6-3

Luca Van Assche

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong

2026-01-04Hard7-6(3) 3-6 6-3

Novak Djokovic

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-04I.Hard7-6(3) 6-1

Adam Walton

Hellenic Championship - Athens

2025-11-02I.Hard7-6(7) 6-7(6) 7-5

Chris Rodesch

Bratislava 2 Challenger

2025-10-28I.Hard6-4 6-4

Alexander Bublik

Erste Bank Open - Vienna

2025-10-20I.Hard6-4 6-4

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Olbia Challenger

2025-10-17Hard6-3 1-6 7-6(3)

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